AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:30 PM
#74Away
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
18p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
32p
COLO 18%82% NU
Spread
NU -13.8
Total
50
Moneyline
COLO+471NU-471
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← COLO advantageevenNU advantage →
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
NU +11
COLO run
NU +29
NU throw
COLO +8
NU run
NU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · NU
CB1 · COLO
81.2
87.2
COLO +6
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · NU
MLB · COLO
77.0
83.8
COLO +7
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · COLO
CB1 · NU
70.8
73.9
NU +3
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · COLO
EDGE · NU
57.6
81.1
NU +23
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · COLO
MLB · NU
54.7
82.9
NU +28
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · NU
FS · COLO
59.6
65.4
COLO +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +13.895% interval: -10.1 to 37.780% interval: -3.6 to 31.2-4+31COLO wins 18%NU wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 32–18 COLONU 28–42 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 32–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 35–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 39–32 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 42–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 46–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 49–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 53–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 56–14 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 25–39 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 28–35 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 32–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 35–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 39–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 42–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 46–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 49–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 53–11 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 21–35 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 25–32 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 28–28 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 32–25 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 35–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 39–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 42–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 46–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 49–7 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 18–32 COLO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 21–28 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 25–25 COLO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 28–21 COLO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 32–18 COLO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNU 35–14 COLO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 39–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 42–7 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 46–4 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 14–28 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 18–25 COLO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 21–21 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 25–18 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 28–14 COLO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 32–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 35–7 COLO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 39–4 COLO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 42–0 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 11–25 COLO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 14–21 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 18–18 COLO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 21–14 COLO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 25–11 COLO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNU 28–7 COLO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 32–4 COLO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 35–0 COLO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NU 7–21 COLO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 11–18 COLO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 14–14 COLO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 18–11 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 21–7 COLO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 25–4 COLO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 28–0 COLO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalCOLO +14PKNU +14NU +28NU +42margin →