Passing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU offense
- #9
- MSU defense
- #109
EPA comparison
0.52
#9
0.29
#109
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NU 71.4%28.6% MSU
- Projected margin
- NU by 8.9
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- NU 28 to MSU 10
- Win probability
- NU 71.4%
Current team profiles
Northwestern
Michigan StateWhen Northwestern has the ball
Rushing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU offense
- #21
- MSU defense
- #88
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.08
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU offense
- #21
- MSU defense
- #95
Success rates
49%
#21
43%
#95
Success rate
More metrics
0.33
#8
0.18
#114
EPA / play
1.31
#29
1.27
#90
Explosiveness
15%
#69
13%
#119
Havoc
When Michigan State has the ball
Passing
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU defense
- #55
- MSU offense
- #111
EPA comparison
0.10
#55
0.08
#111
Pass EPA
Rushing
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU defense
- #73
- MSU offense
- #110
EPA comparison
0.05
#73
0.00
#110
Rush EPA
Drive success
MSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NU defense
- #104
- MSU offense
- #69
Success rates
43%
#104
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#69
0.02
#117
EPA / play
1.11
#26
1.06
#133
Explosiveness
17%
#49
17%
#106
Havoc
Current key players
NorthwesternQBAidan Chiles
900 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
73.8122/729
RBJoseph Himon II
277 yds · 3 TD · 13.8 YPC
86.625/1044
TELuke Dehnicke
11 rec · 208 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 35.0
- Run blocking
- 60.8
- Penalties
- 1
85.011/1017
DBBraden Turner
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 100
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.5
- Missed tackles
- 1
78.389/2969
WRGriffin Wilde
16 rec · 281 yds · 2 TD
74.2140/2069
DBRobert Fitzgerald
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.6
- Coverage
- 74.4
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 9
74.0227/2969
Availability reports · 7
- Josh Fussell · CBout · 2026-10-10
Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Tom McGlinchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return.
- Luke Dehnicke · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Braden Turner · CBQues. · 2026-10-10
Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Chase Farrell · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will be available against the MI State on Saturday,
- Chris Petrucci · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaden McDuffie · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
Michigan StateQBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.4
- Coverage
- 68.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 55.6
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.2
- Coverage
- 58.1
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 59
- Passer rating allowed
- 124.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11
Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
NUNorthwestern
MSUMichigan State
vs
Offense
73.8
#87 of 138
QB
Quarterback
68.2
#109 of 138
80.3
#34 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.8
#99 of 138
66.2
#126 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.7
#65 of 138
85.0
#11 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.8
#59 of 138
65.8
#89 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.5
#49 of 138
Defense
68.7
#118 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.3
#80 of 138
68.7
#115 of 138
LB
Linebackers
80.2
#19 of 138
71.6
#75 of 138
DB
Secondary
66.7
#129 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Northwestern
opponent
Michigan State
Hhome+15.7
RUTGRutgers#89-1.2Aaway
Hhome+6.8
ILLIllinois#47-1.0Hhome
Aaway-12.2
OREOregon#8-18.4Hhome