AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#37Away
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
30p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
23p
NU 69%31% MSU
Spread
NU -7.5
Total
53
Moneyline
NU-225MSU+225
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NU advantageevenMSU advantage →
NU throw
NU +22
NU run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
NU +29
MSU throw
MSU QB #138
NU +27
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Charles Brantley
X · NU
CB1 · MSU
81.2
85.6
MSU +4
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · MSU
MLB · NU
83.7
82.9
dead even
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · NU
MLB · MSU
77.0
86.7
MSU +10
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · MSU
CB1 · NU
54.5
73.9
NU +19
off the edge· hunting Fancher
Nick Sharpe
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · MSU
EDGE · NU
42.1
81.1
NU +39
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Caleb Gash
TE · NU
FS · MSU
59.6
48.6
NU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northwestern
opponent
Michigan State
home+7.3
Rutgers#48
-7.8away
home+3.2
Illinois#35
-6.8home
away-22.9
Oregon#2
-27.9home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +7.595% interval: -31.5 to 16.480% interval: -24.9 to 9.8-25+10NU wins 69%MSU wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 32–25 MSUMSU 21–56 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 25–53 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 28–49 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 32–46 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 35–42 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 39–39 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 42–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 46–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 49–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 18–53 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 21–49 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 25–46 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 28–42 NU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 32–39 NU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 35–35 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 39–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 42–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 46–25 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 14–49 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 18–46 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 21–42 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 25–39 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–35 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMSU 32–32 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 35–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMSU 39–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 42–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 11–46 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 14–42 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 18–39 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 21–35 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 25–32 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMSU 28–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 32–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 35–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 39–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 7–42 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 11–39 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMSU 14–35 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 18–32 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 21–28 NU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 25–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 28–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 32–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 35–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 4–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 7–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 11–32 NU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMSU 14–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 18–25 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMSU 21–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 25–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 28–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 32–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 0–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMSU 4–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMSU 7–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 11–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 14–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMSU 18–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 21–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMSU 25–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNU +35NU +21NU +7MSU +7MSU +21margin →