Passing
No comparison
- SDST offense
- —
- NU defense
- #55
EPA comparison
—
0.10
#55
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SDST 4.0%96.0% NU
- Projected margin
- NU by 28.0
- Projected total
- 52
- 80% outcome range
- NU 8 to NU 49
- Win probability
- NU 96.0%
FinalSDST 18 · NU 34model had +28.0, off by 12.0
Current team profiles
South Dakota State
NorthwesternWhen South Dakota State has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- SDST offense
- —
- NU defense
- #73
EPA comparison
—
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- SDST offense
- #10
- NU defense
- #104
Success rates
49%
#10
43%
#104
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#7
0.06
#69
EPA / play
0.24
#11
1.11
#26
Explosiveness
—
17%
#49
Havoc
When Northwestern has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- SDST defense
- —
- NU offense
- #9
EPA comparison
—
0.52
#9
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- SDST defense
- —
- NU offense
- #21
EPA comparison
—
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- SDST defense
- #10
- NU offense
- #21
Success rates
39%
#10
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
-0.11
#1
0.33
#8
EPA / play
0.17
#3
1.31
#29
Explosiveness
—
15%
#69
Havoc
Current key players
South Dakota StateQBChase Mason
834 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
81.136/370
RBRamon McKinney Jr.
104 yds · 2 TD · 9.5 YPC
89.96/631
DBPaul Kim
11 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.6
- Coverage
- 89.6
- Targets allowed
- 10
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 45
- Passer rating allowed
- 62.5
- Missed tackles
- 1
87.54/1765
OLJohn Pica
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 78.6
- Run blocking
- 80.4
- Penalties
- 1
83.64/1368
RBJosiah Johnson
680 yds · 7 TD · 6.6 YPC
82.620/631
OLJae'Shaun Thomas
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 72.9
- Run blocking
- 79.8
- Penalties
- 0
82.55/1368
NorthwesternQBAidan Chiles
900 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
73.8122/729
RBJoseph Himon II
277 yds · 3 TD · 13.8 YPC
86.625/1044
TELuke Dehnicke
11 rec · 208 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 35.0
- Run blocking
- 60.8
- Penalties
- 1
85.011/1017
DBBraden Turner
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 100
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.5
- Missed tackles
- 1
78.389/2969
WRGriffin Wilde
16 rec · 281 yds · 2 TD
74.2140/2069
DBRobert Fitzgerald
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.6
- Coverage
- 74.4
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 9
74.0227/2969
Availability reports · 7
- Josh Fussell · CBout · 2026-10-10
Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Tom McGlinchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return.
- Luke Dehnicke · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Braden Turner · CBQues. · 2026-10-10
Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Chase Farrell · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will be available against the MI State on Saturday,
- Chris Petrucci · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaden McDuffie · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
SDSTSouth Dakota State
NUNorthwestern
vs
Offense
81.1
#32 of 125
QB
Quarterback
73.8
#87 of 138
86.2
#2 of 126
RB
Running backs
80.3
#34 of 138
74.7
#15 of 126
WR
Receivers
66.2
#126 of 138
78.3
#11 of 124
TE
Tight ends
85.0
#11 of 138
77.0
#2 of 125
OL
Offensive line
65.8
#89 of 138
Defense
75.3
#24 of 126
DL
Defensive line
68.7
#118 of 138
73.7
#40 of 126
LB
Linebackers
68.7
#115 of 138
78.3
#4 of 126
DB
Secondary
71.6
#75 of 138