AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#136Away
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
10p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
40p
BALL 2%98% NU
Spread
NU -29.5
Total
50
Moneyline
BALL—NU—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BALL advantageevenNU advantage →
BALL throw
NU +31
BALL run
NU +57
NU throw
NU +55
NU run
NU +74

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Jared Badie
RB · NU
MLB · BALL
77.0
60.1
NU +17
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · NU
CB1 · BALL
81.2
55.4
NU +26
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · BALL
MLB · NU
49.3
82.9
NU +34
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · BALL
CB1 · NU
47.0
73.9
NU +27
off the edge· hunting Luster
Chris Hood
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · BALL
EDGE · NU
12.8
81.1
NU +68
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Derek Fields
TE · NU
FS · BALL
59.6
33.1
NU +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Projected margin

80% between 12 and 47
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +29.595% interval: 5.6 to 53.480% interval: 12.1 to 46.9+12+47BALL wins 2%NU wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 39–11 BALLNU 35–35 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 39–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 42–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 46–25 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 49–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 53–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 56–14 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 60–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 63–7 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 32–32 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 35–28 BALL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 39–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 42–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 46–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 49–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 53–11 BALL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 56–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 60–4 BALL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 28–28 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 32–25 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 35–21 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 39–18 BALL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 42–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesNU 46–11 BALL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNU 49–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 53–4 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 56–0 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 25–25 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 28–21 BALL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 32–18 BALL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 35–14 BALL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 39–11 BALL neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesNU 42–7 BALL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNU 46–4 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 49–0 BALL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NU 21–21 BALL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 25–18 BALL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 28–14 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 32–11 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 35–7 BALL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNU 39–4 BALL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 42–0 BALL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NU 18–18 BALL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 21–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 25–11 BALL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 28–7 BALL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 32–4 BALL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 35–0 BALL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NU 14–14 BALL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 18–11 BALL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 21–7 BALL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 25–4 BALL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 28–0 BALL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKNU +14NU +28NU +42NU +56margin →