Passing
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL offense
- #92
- NU defense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.10
#55
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 12:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
BALL 0.4%99.6% NU
- Projected margin
- NU by 37.3
- Projected total
- 51
- 80% outcome range
- NU 20 to NU 56
- Win probability
- NU 99.6%
FinalBALL 14 · NU 45model had +37.3, off by 6.3
Current team profiles
Ball StateNorthwesternWhen Ball State has the ball
Rushing
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL offense
- #100
- NU defense
- #73
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.05
#73
Rush EPA
Drive success
NU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL offense
- #128
- NU defense
- #104
Success rates
36%
#128
43%
#104
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#107
0.06
#69
EPA / play
1.38
#13
1.11
#26
Explosiveness
18%
#125
17%
#49
Havoc
When Northwestern has the ball
Passing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL defense
- #132
- NU offense
- #9
EPA comparison
0.45
#132
0.52
#9
Pass EPA
Rushing
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL defense
- #133
- NU offense
- #21
EPA comparison
0.25
#133
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
NU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BALL defense
- #114
- NU offense
- #21
Success rates
45%
#114
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#136
0.33
#8
EPA / play
1.44
#135
1.31
#29
Explosiveness
13%
#113
15%
#69
Havoc
Current key players
Ball StateQBKeldric Luster
662 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
67.4185/729
RBElijah Jackson
25 yds · 0 TD · 6.2 YPC
80.668/1044
DBGabe Aramboles
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.6
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 91.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.2220/2969
LBKaleb Stewart
23 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.9
- Coverage
- 60.9
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.9260/1796
DBQuentavius Scandrett
25 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.2
- Coverage
- 74.3
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 60
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.4
- Missed tackles
- 3
70.9387/2969
LBLayton Starks
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.6
- Coverage
- 66.6
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 66
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.2443/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Isaiah Thacker · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thacker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Derion Talbert · WRout · 2026-09-26
Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Cole Coonrod · TEout · 2026-10-10
Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jalen Bonds · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Bonds is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Riggins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Riggins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Char'Rese Breveard · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
NorthwesternQBAidan Chiles
900 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
73.8122/729
RBJoseph Himon II
277 yds · 3 TD · 13.8 YPC
86.625/1044
TELuke Dehnicke
11 rec · 208 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 35.0
- Run blocking
- 60.8
- Penalties
- 1
85.011/1017
DBBraden Turner
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.0
- Coverage
- 78.9
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 100
- Passer rating allowed
- 73.5
- Missed tackles
- 1
78.389/2969
WRGriffin Wilde
16 rec · 281 yds · 2 TD
74.2140/2069
DBRobert Fitzgerald
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.6
- Coverage
- 74.4
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 9
74.0227/2969
Availability reports · 7
- Josh Fussell · CBout · 2026-10-10
Fussell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Tom McGlinchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
McGlinchey is sidelined with an undisclosed injury and there is no timetable for return.
- Luke Dehnicke · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Dehnicke is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Braden Turner · CBQues. · 2026-10-10
Turner is bothered by a Undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Chase Farrell · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Farrell has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will be available against the MI State on Saturday,
- Chris Petrucci · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Petrucci has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaden McDuffie · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
McDuffie is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be active against the MI State on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BALLBall State
NUNorthwestern
vs
Offense
67.4
#112 of 138
QB
Quarterback
73.8
#87 of 138
80.2
#35 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.3
#34 of 138
64.8
#130 of 138
WR
Receivers
66.2
#126 of 138
58.7
#130 of 138
TE
Tight ends
85.0
#11 of 138
66.4
#86 of 138
OL
Offensive line
65.8
#89 of 138
Defense
68.0
#121 of 138
DL
Defensive line
68.7
#118 of 138
68.5
#116 of 138
LB
Linebackers
68.7
#115 of 138
67.8
#118 of 138
DB
Secondary
71.6
#75 of 138