AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#48Away
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
23p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
31p
RUTG 31%69% NU
Spread
NU -7.3
Total
54
Moneyline
RUTG+227NU-227
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RUTG advantageevenNU advantage →
RUTG throw
RUTG +17
RUTG run
RUTG +19
NU throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
NU +28
NU run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
NU +37

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · RUTG
MLB · NU
86.0
82.9
RUTG +3
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · RUTG
CB1 · NU
87.1
73.9
RUTG +13
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · RUTG
EDGE · NU
73.7
81.1
NU +7
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Ty Morris
RB · NU
MLB · RUTG
77.0
65.5
NU +12
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · NU
CB1 · RUTG
81.2
46.7
NU +35
over the middle
Jackson Gister
vs
Josh Fussell
TE · RUTG
FS · NU
57.2
51.5
RUTG +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rutgers
opponent
Northwestern
away-12.7
Penn State#21
-2.9home
home+7.8
Michigan State#65
+7.5away
home-13.8
Indiana#7
-14.0away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +7.395% interval: -16.6 to 31.280% interval: -10.1 to 24.7-10+25RUTG wins 31%NU wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 32–25 RUTGNU 28–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 32–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 35–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 39–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 42–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 46–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 49–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 53–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 56–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 25–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 28–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 32–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 35–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 39–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 42–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 46–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 49–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 53–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 21–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 25–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 28–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 32–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 35–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 39–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNU 42–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 46–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 49–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 18–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 21–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 25–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 28–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 32–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNU 35–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 39–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 42–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 46–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 14–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 18–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 21–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 25–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 28–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 32–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 35–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 39–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 42–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 11–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 14–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 18–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 21–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 25–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 28–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 32–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 35–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 39–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 7–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 11–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 14–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 18–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 21–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 25–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 28–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 32–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 35–0 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalRUTG +21RUTG +7NU +7NU +21NU +35margin →