AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#37Away
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
26p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
23p
NU 58%42% MINN
Spread
NU -2.9
Total
49
Moneyline
NU-136MINN+136
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NU advantageevenMINN advantage →
NU throw
MINN pass rush #20
NU +7
NU run
NU +9
MINN throw
MINN +13
MINN run
NU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · NU
MLB · MINN
77.0
78.3
dead even
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
John Nestor
X · NU
CB1 · MINN
81.2
71.9
NU +9
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · MINN
MLB · NU
69.0
82.9
NU +14
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · MINN
CB1 · NU
61.2
73.9
NU +13
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · MINN
EDGE · NU
50.2
81.1
NU +31
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Rhyland Kelly
TE · NU
FS · MINN
59.6
54.5
NU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northwestern
opponent
Minnesota
home-2.9
Penn State#21
-13.3away
home-2.7
Iowa#22
-8.1home
away-14.0
Indiana#7
-19.4away

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +2.995% interval: -26.8 to 2180% interval: -20.3 to 14.5-20+15NU wins 58%MINN wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MINN 25–25 NUMINN 21–49 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 25–46 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 28–42 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 32–39 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 35–35 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 39–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 42–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 46–25 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 49–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMINN 18–46 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 21–42 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 25–39 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 28–35 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 32–32 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 35–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 39–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 42–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 46–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 14–42 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 18–39 NU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 21–35 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 25–32 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 28–28 NU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMINN 32–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 35–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 39–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 42–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 11–39 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 14–35 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 18–32 NU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 21–28 NU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMINN 25–25 NU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 28–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 32–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 35–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 39–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 7–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 11–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 14–28 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 18–25 NU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 21–21 NU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMINN 25–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 28–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 32–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 35–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 4–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 7–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 11–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 14–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 18–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 21–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMINN 25–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 28–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 32–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 0–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 4–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 7–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 11–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 14–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMINN 18–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 21–7 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMINN 25–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 28–0 NU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalNU +28NU +14PKMINN +14MINN +28margin →