AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Land of Lincoln Trophy
#35Away
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
25p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
28p
ILL 41%59% NU
Spread
NU -3.2
Total
53
Moneyline
ILL+144NU-144
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ILL advantageevenNU advantage →
ILL throw
ILL +22
ILL run
ILL +5
NU throw
NU +33
NU run
NU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · ILL
MLB · NU
68.9
82.9
NU +14
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · NU
CB1 · ILL
81.2
62.8
NU +18
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · ILL
CB1 · NU
68.9
73.9
NU +5
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · ILL
EDGE · NU
61.6
81.1
NU +19
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
James Kreutz
RB · NU
MLB · ILL
77.0
63.3
NU +14
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Josh Fussell
TE · ILL
FS · NU
72.7
51.5
ILL +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Illinois
opponent
Northwestern
home-18.6
Oregon#2
-22.9away
away-26.1
Ohio State#1
-25.4away
away+6.8
Michigan State#65
+7.5away
home-3.4
Iowa#22
-2.7home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNU +3.295% interval: -21.3 to 27.880% interval: -14.6 to 21.1-15+21ILL wins 41%NU wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 28–28 ILLNU 25–53 ILL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNU 28–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 32–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 35–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 39–39 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 42–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 46–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 49–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 53–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 21–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 25–46 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 28–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 32–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 35–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 39–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 42–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 46–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 49–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 18–46 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 21–42 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 25–39 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 28–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 32–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 35–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 39–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 42–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 46–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 14–42 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 18–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 21–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 25–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 28–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 32–25 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 35–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 39–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 42–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 11–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 14–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 18–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 21–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 25–25 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 28–21 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 32–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 35–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 39–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 7–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 11–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 14–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 18–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 21–21 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNU 25–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNU 28–14 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 32–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 35–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 4–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 7–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 11–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 14–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 18–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 21–14 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 25–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNU 28–7 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 32–4 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalILL +28ILL +14PKNU +14NU +28margin →