AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#22Away
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
26p
#37Home
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
23p
IOWA 57%43% NU
Spread
IOWA -2.7
Total
49
Moneyline
IOWA-135NU+135
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IOWA advantageevenNU advantage →
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
NU +17
IOWA run
IOWA +20
NU throw
IOWA pass rush #76
even
NU run
NU +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · NU
CB1 · IOWA
81.2
91.9
IOWA +11
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · IOWA
EDGE · NU
91.6
81.1
IOWA +11
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · IOWA
MLB · NU
74.1
82.9
NU +9
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Jayden Montgomery
RB · NU
MLB · IOWA
77.0
62.0
NU +15
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Alex Mota
TE · NU
FS · IOWA
59.6
65.4
IOWA +6
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Josh Fussell
TE · IOWA
FS · NU
72.6
51.5
IOWA +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa
opponent
Northwestern
home-15.2
Ohio State#1
-25.4away
away+8.1
Minnesota#54
+2.9away
away+3.4
Illinois#35
+3.2home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +2.795% interval: -26.6 to 21.280% interval: -20.1 to 14.7-20+15IOWA wins 57%NU wins 43%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NU 25–25 IOWANU 21–49 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 25–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 28–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 32–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 35–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 39–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 42–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNU 46–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 49–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNU 18–46 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 21–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 25–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNU 28–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 32–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 35–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 39–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNU 42–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 46–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 14–42 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 18–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 21–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 25–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 28–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 32–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 35–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 39–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 42–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 11–39 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 14–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 18–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNU 21–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 25–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNU 28–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 32–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 35–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 39–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 7–35 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNU 11–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 14–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNU 18–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNU 21–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNU 25–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNU 28–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNU 32–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNU 35–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNU 4–32 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 7–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNU 11–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 14–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNU 18–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNU 21–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNU 25–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNU 28–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNU 32–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNU 0–28 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNU 4–25 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNU 7–21 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNU 11–18 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNU 14–14 IOWA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNU 18–11 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNU 21–7 IOWA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNU 25–4 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNU 28–0 IOWA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalIOWA +28IOWA +14PKNU +14NU +28margin →