AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#37Away
Northwestern
0-0 · AVR 59.3
11p
#1Home
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
37p
NU 4%96% OSU
Spread
OSU -25.4
Total
48
Moneyline
NU+2363OSU-2363
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NU advantageevenOSU advantage →
NU throw
even
NU run
NU +12
OSU throw
OSU +41
OSU run
OSU +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Brenden Deasfernandes
X · OSU
CB1 · NU
96.0
73.9
OSU +22
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Kobie McKinzie
RB · OSU
MLB · NU
84.6
82.9
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Michael Kilbane
LT · OSU
EDGE · NU
81.7
81.1
dead even
when NU runs
Caleb Komolafe
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · NU
MLB · OSU
77.0
79.4
dead even
when NU throws
Griffin Wilde
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · NU
CB1 · OSU
81.2
69.4
NU +12
over the middle
Alex Honig
vs
Ryan Rudzinski
TE · NU
FS · OSU
59.6
59.1
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northwestern
LBKobie McKinzie
82.934/878
WRGriffin Wilde
81.219/777
RBCaleb Komolafe
77.033/514
DBBrenden Deasfernandes
73.9166/1427
DBBraden Turner
72.0190/1427
LBBraydon Brus
68.6166/878
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Northwestern
opponent
Ohio State
away-22.9
Oregon#2
+5.0home
home+3.2
Illinois#35
+26.1home
away-14.0
Indiana#7
+8.9away
home-2.7
Iowa#22
+15.2away
home+29.5
Ball State#136
+37.9home

Projected margin

80% between 8 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +25.495% interval: 1.5 to 49.380% interval: 8 to 42.7+8+43NU wins 4%OSU wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 39–11 NUOSU 35–35 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 39–32 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOSU 42–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 46–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 49–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 53–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 56–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOSU 60–11 NU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOSU 63–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 32–32 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 35–28 NU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOSU 39–25 NU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOSU 42–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 46–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOSU 49–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 53–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 56–7 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 60–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOSU 28–28 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 32–25 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 35–21 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 39–18 NU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOSU 42–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOSU 46–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 49–7 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 53–4 NU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOSU 56–0 NU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOSU 25–25 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 28–21 NU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOSU 32–18 NU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOSU 35–14 NU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 39–11 NU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOSU 42–7 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 46–4 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOSU 49–0 NU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OSU 21–21 NU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOSU 25–18 NU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOSU 28–14 NU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOSU 32–11 NU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOSU 35–7 NU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOSU 39–4 NU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOSU 42–0 NU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 18–18 NU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOSU 21–14 NU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOSU 25–11 NU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOSU 28–7 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 32–4 NU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOSU 35–0 NU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OSU 14–14 NU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOSU 18–11 NU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOSU 21–7 NU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOSU 25–4 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOSU 28–0 NU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKOSU +14OSU +28OSU +42OSU +56margin →