CFB
Model
All rankings
Big Ten

USC

Trojans6-16th in Big Ten
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA · 77,500
TeamCarried by the offense · underachieving the roster
OffenseMethodical passing attack · strongweak point: explosiveness, 85th
DefenseStout against the run · weakweak point: pass defense, 126th

The season

Best win
W 31-23 @ #43 Penn State
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · model had 52%
Worst loss
L 27-41 vs #8 Oregon
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 35%

Schedule

model 7/7 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsSan José State
    W 42–26
    Win chance >99%Model margin +36.0Game details
  2. Week 1 · Sep 4
    vsFresno State
    W 39–0
    Win chance 97%Model margin +24.8Game details
  3. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsLouisiana
    W 49–30
    Win chance 96%Model margin +23.7Game details
  4. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atRutgers
    W 42–35
    Win chance 86%Model margin +14.7Game details
  5. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsOregon
    L 27–41
    Win chance 35%Model margin -5.2Game details
  6. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsWashington
    W 25–21
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.6Game details
  7. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atPenn State
    W 31–23
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.5Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atWisconsin
    Win chance 77%Model margin +9.8Game details
  9. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOhio State
    Win chance 29%Model margin -7.3Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atIndiana
    Win chance 28%Model margin -8.1Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsMaryland
    Win chance 93%Model margin +19.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atUCLA
    Win chance 67%Model margin +5.7Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
75
#21 of 138
Defense efficiency
27
#106 of 138
Efficiency
#140.31
EPA / play
#1030.14
#60.55
Pass
#1260.37
#810.08
Rush
#560.02
#852%
Success
#7741%
Big plays & havoc
#851.21
Explosive
#1101.32
#910%
Havoc
#12412%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB20th
RB51st
WR7th
TE39th
OL6th
DL25th
LB122nd
DB117th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Jayden MaiavaSR
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.3
21st QB
RB
King MillerSO
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9
114th RB
WR
Trent MosleyFR
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.8
7th WR
WR
Corey SimmsSO
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.2
83rd WR
TE
Mark BowmanFR
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
74.5
49th TE
Defense
LB
Elijah NewbySO
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
69.1
407th LB
LB
Ta'Mere RobinsonJR
11 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
67.4
476th LB
CB
Elbert Hill IVFR
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
70.9
389th DB
CB
Alex GrahamFR
11 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
69.7
461st DB
CB
Jontez WilliamsSR
11 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
67.6
638th DB

Injury report

3 out
out
Corey SimmsWR

Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

77.210-02
out
Terrell AndersonWR

Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

68.310-09
out
Kilian O'ConnorOG

O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

66.8202508-11
Ques.
Deshonne RedeauxRB

Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

77.210-11
Ques.
Mark BowmanTE

Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

74.510-11
Ques.
Kendarius ReddickS

Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

54.7202510-11
Ques.
Roderick TezenoWR

Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

—10-11
Ques.
Romero IsonWR

Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

60.0202510-11
Ques.
Sam HuardQB

Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

72.7202510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atWisconsin
    Playoff chance if win
    35.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    15.0%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsOhio State
    Playoff chance if win
    45.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    22.5%
  3. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atIndiana
    Playoff chance if win
    47.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    22.6%
  4. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsMaryland
    Playoff chance if win
    32.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    11.7%
  5. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atUCLA
    Playoff chance if win
    37.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    16.9%

Past seasons

Year by year
+5.1 points since 2022
606875839070.7202271.4202370.3202475.82025
2022 70.72023 71.42024 70.32025 75.8

2025

9-3
D-I rank
#13
Rating
75.8
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWLWWWLW
438 pts scored269 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Missouri StateW 73–13
  2. W2 vs Georgia SouthernW 59–20
  3. W3 at PurdueW 33–17
  4. W4 vs Michigan StateW 45–31
  5. W5 at IllinoisL 32–34
  6. W7 vs MichiganW 31–13
  7. W8 at Notre DameL 24–34
  8. W10 at NebraskaW 21–17
  9. W11 vs NorthwesternW 38–17
  10. W12 vs IowaW 26–21
  11. W13 at OregonL 27–42
  12. W14 vs UCLAW 29–10

2024

6-6
D-I rank
#28
Rating
70.3
Listed games · 12
WWLWLLLWLWWL
357 pts scored282 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs LSUW 27–20
  2. W2 vs Utah StateW 48–0
  3. W4 at MichiganL 24–27
  4. W5 vs WisconsinW 38–21
  5. W6 at MinnesotaL 17–24
  6. W7 vs Penn StateL 30–33
  7. W8 at MarylandL 28–29
  8. W9 vs RutgersW 42–20
  9. W10 at WashingtonL 21–26
  10. W12 vs NebraskaW 28–20
  11. W13 at UCLAW 19–13
  12. W14 vs Notre DameL 35–49

2023

7-5
D-I rank
#24
Rating
71.4
Listed games · 12
WWWWWWLLWLLL
502 pts scored419 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs San José StateW 56–28
  2. W1 vs NevadaW 66–14
  3. W2 vs StanfordW 56–10
  4. W4 at Arizona StateW 42–28
  5. W5 at ColoradoW 48–41
  6. W6 vs ArizonaW 43–41
  7. W7 at Notre DameL 20–48
  8. W8 vs UtahL 32–34
  9. W9 at CaliforniaW 50–49
  10. W10 vs WashingtonL 42–52
  11. W11 at OregonL 27–36
  12. W12 vs UCLAL 20–38

2022

11-2
D-I rank
#21
Rating
70.7
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWLWWWWWL
534 pts scored363 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs RiceW 66–14
  2. W2 at StanfordW 41–28
  3. W3 vs Fresno StateW 45–17
  4. W4 at Oregon StateW 17–14
  5. W5 vs Arizona StateW 42–25
  6. W6 vs Washington StateW 30–14
  7. W7 at UtahL 42–43
  8. W9 at ArizonaW 45–37
  9. W10 vs CaliforniaW 41–35
  10. W11 vs ColoradoW 55–17
  11. W12 at UCLAW 48–45
  12. W13 vs Notre DameW 38–27
  13. W14 vs UtahL 24–47