AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#2Away
Oregon
0-0 · AVR 85.1
33p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
27p
ORE 64%36% USC
Spread
ORE -5.4
Total
60
Moneyline
ORE-181USC+181
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORE advantageevenUSC advantage →
ORE throw
ORE +14
ORE run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
ORE +31
USC throw
USC +15
USC run
ORE linebackers #1
USC +8

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Brandon Finney Jr.
X · USC
CB1 · ORE
91.2
88.9
dead even
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Teitum Tuioti
RB · USC
MLB · ORE
84.2
91.9
ORE +8
off the edge· hunting Moore
Iapani Laloulu
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · ORE
EDGE · USC
79.3
82.9
USC +4
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
A'Mauri Washington
LT · USC
EDGE · ORE
78.2
81.6
ORE +3
when ORE throws
Jeremiah McClellan
vs
Jontez Williams
X · ORE
CB1 · USC
75.6
77.5
dead even
when ORE runs
Jordon Davison
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · ORE
MLB · USC
79.1
68.3
ORE +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon
LBTeitum Tuioti
91.97/878
LBMatayo Uiagalelei
90.610/878
DBBrandon Finney Jr.
88.917/1427
TEJamari Johnson
84.51/287
DBPeyton Woodyard
81.377/1427
QBDante Moorequestionable
79.922/308

also out — Surprise Player Standing, Brayden Platt (LB), J. Davison (RB), Tony Cumberland

USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon
opponent
USC
home+28.6
UCLA#53
+15.7away
home+13.7
Washington#15
+5.8home
away-5.0
Ohio State#1
-7.8home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORE +5.495% interval: -29.3 to 18.580% interval: -22.7 to 12-23+12ORE wins 64%USC wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ORE 35–28 USCUSC 25–60 ORE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSC 28–56 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 32–53 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 35–49 ORE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 39–46 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 42–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 46–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 49–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 53–32 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 21–56 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 25–53 ORE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 28–49 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 32–46 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 35–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 39–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 42–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 46–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 49–28 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 18–53 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 21–49 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 25–46 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 28–42 ORE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 32–39 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 35–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 39–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 42–28 ORE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 46–25 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 14–49 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 18–46 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 21–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 25–39 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 28–35 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 32–32 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 35–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 39–25 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 42–21 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 11–46 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 14–42 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 18–39 ORE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 21–35 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 25–32 ORE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 28–28 ORE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 32–25 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 35–21 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 39–18 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 7–42 ORE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 11–39 ORE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 14–35 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 18–32 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 21–28 ORE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSC 25–25 ORE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 28–21 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 32–18 ORE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 35–14 ORE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 4–39 ORE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 7–35 ORE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 11–32 ORE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 14–28 ORE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 18–25 ORE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 21–21 ORE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 25–18 ORE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 28–14 ORE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 32–11 ORE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalORE +35ORE +21ORE +7USC +7USC +21margin →