CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ORE 60.7%39.3% USC
Projected margin
ORE by 5.2
Projected total
64
80% outcome range
ORE 25 to USC 14
Win probability
ORE 60.7%
FinalORE 41 · USC 27model had -5.2, off by 8.8

Current team profiles

Oregon
USC

When Oregon has the ball

Passing

ORE offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE offense
#41
USC defense
#126
EPA comparison
0.32
#41
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE offense
#100
USC defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORE offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE offense
#60
USC defense
#77
Success rates
44%
#60
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#61
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.32
#26
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
14%
#67
12%
#124
Havoc

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE defense
#34
USC offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

ORE defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE defense
#34
USC offense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORE defense
#37
USC offense
#8
Success rates
37%
#37
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#32
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.21
#69
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
16%
#62
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Oregon
QBDylan Raiola
413 yds · 5 TD · 0 INT
85.836/729
LBNasir Wyatt
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
61.2
Pressures
10
Pass-rush snaps
50
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
91.56/1796
LBDevon Jackson
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.3
Coverage
81.0
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.553/1796
RBDierre Hill Jr.
184 yds · 3 TD · 4.4 YPC
82.752/1044
WRMessiah Hampton
14 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD
80.651/2069
TEKendre Harrison
4 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
71.5
Run blocking
65.8
Penalties
0
79.826/1017
Availability reports · 5
  • Jeremiah McClellan · WRout · 2026-09-21

    McClellan is sidelined due to a foot injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Iverson Hooks · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hooks is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Cornhuskers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D. Moore · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Cornhuskers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Gresham · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gresham is hampered by a neck injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against the Cornhuskers on Saturday, October 17t

  • Simeon Price · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Price is nursing due to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Cornhuskers on Saturday, October

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ORE
USC
vs
Offense
85.8
#34 of 138
QB
90.3
#20 of 138
81.3
#27 of 138
RB
77.6
#51 of 138
72.9
#49 of 138
WR
81.0
#7 of 138
79.8
#25 of 138
TE
74.5
#39 of 138
73.7
#22 of 138
OL
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
75.9
#47 of 138
DL
77.9
#25 of 138
84.4
#7 of 138
LB
67.7
#122 of 138
73.2
#55 of 138
DB
68.1
#117 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oregon
opponent
USC
H+12.7
WASH#45
+4.0H
H-2.0
UCLA#24
+5.7A
A-8.0
OSU#2
-7.3H