AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#1Away
Ohio State
0-0 · AVR 85.7
32p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
24p
OSU 70%30% USC
Spread
OSU -7.8
Total
56
Moneyline
OSU-231USC+231
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OSU advantageevenUSC advantage →
OSU throw
OSU +20
OSU run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
OSU +27
USC throw
USC +23
USC run
USC +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Kenyatta Jackson Jr.
LT · USC
EDGE · OSU
78.2
95.4
OSU +17
when OSU throws
Jeremiah Smith
vs
Jontez Williams
X · OSU
CB1 · USC
96.0
77.5
OSU +19
off the edge· hunting Sayin
Austin Siereveld
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · OSU
EDGE · USC
81.7
82.9
dead even
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Christian Alliegro
RB · USC
MLB · OSU
84.2
79.4
USC +5
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
X · USC
CB1 · OSU
91.2
69.4
USC +22
when OSU runs
Bo Jackson
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · OSU
MLB · USC
84.6
68.3
OSU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio State
WRJeremiah Smith
96.01/777
QBJulian Sayin
86.67/308
RBBo Jackson
84.68/514
LBChristian Alliegro
79.461/878
CBJermaine Mathews Jr.
69.4253/1427
LBPayton Pierce
67.8180/878

also out — Legend Bey (RB), Ohio State OL

USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Ohio State
opponent
USC
away+8.9
Indiana#7
-1.5away
home+5.0
Oregon#2
-5.4home
home+29.7
Maryland#47
+19.3home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOSU +7.895% interval: -31.7 to 16.180% interval: -25.2 to 9.6-25+10OSU wins 70%USC wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OSU 32–25 USCUSC 21–56 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 25–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 28–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 32–46 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 35–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 39–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 42–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 46–32 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 49–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 18–53 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 21–49 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 25–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 28–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 32–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 35–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 39–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 42–28 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 46–25 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 14–49 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 18–46 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 21–42 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 25–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 28–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 32–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 35–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 39–25 OSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 42–21 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 11–46 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 14–42 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 18–39 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 21–35 OSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 25–32 OSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 28–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 32–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 35–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 39–18 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 7–42 OSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 11–39 OSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 14–35 OSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 18–32 OSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 21–28 OSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 25–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 28–21 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 32–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 35–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 4–39 OSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 7–35 OSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 11–32 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 14–28 OSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 18–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 21–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 25–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 28–14 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 32–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 0–35 OSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 4–32 OSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 7–28 OSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSC 11–25 OSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 14–21 OSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 18–18 OSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 21–14 OSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 25–11 OSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 28–7 OSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalOSU +35OSU +21OSU +7USC +7USC +21margin →