AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 3:00 PM
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
26
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
42
SJSU 0%100% USC
Spread
USC -38.0
Total
60
Moneyline
SJSU—USC—
Against the market
USC +1.0line USC -37.0
FinalSJSU 26 · USC 42model had +38.0, off by 22.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenUSC advantage →
SJSU throw
USC +45
SJSU run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
USC +39
USC throw
SJSU pass rush #78
USC +66
USC run
USC +48

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · USC
EDGE · SJSU
78.2
73.0
USC +5
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · USC
CB1 · SJSU
91.2
53.8
USC +37
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · USC
MLB · SJSU
84.2
58.0
USC +26
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Jontez Williams
X · SJSU
CB1 · USC
52.8
77.5
USC +25
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · SJSU
MLB · USC
49.8
68.3
USC +18
over the middle
Carson Tabaracci
vs
Runye Norton
TE · USC
FS · SJSU
65.3
36.7
USC +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 55
-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +38.0MKTActual margin: USC +16ACTUAL95% interval: 8 to 6380% interval: 18 to 55+18+55SJSU wins 0%USC wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 49–14 SJSUUSC 46–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSC 49–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 53–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 56–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 60–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 63–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 67–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 70–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 74–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 56–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 60–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 63–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 67–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 70–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 53–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 56–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 60–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 63–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 67–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 49–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 53–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 56–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 60–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 63–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 46–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 49–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 53–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 56–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)USC 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 42–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 46–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 49–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)USC 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 39–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 42–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalActual: USC 42–26 SJSUACTUALUSC +7USC +21USC +35USC +49USC +63margin →