CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 3:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SJSU 1.2%98.8% USC
Projected margin
USC by 36.0
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
USC 16 to USC 57
Win probability
USC 98.8%
FinalSJSU 26 · USC 42model had +36.0, off by 20.0

Current team profiles

San José State
USC

When San José State has the ball

Passing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#62
USC defense
#126
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#113
USC defense
#56
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#102
USC defense
#77
Success rates
40%
#102
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#89
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.14
#113
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
15%
#79
12%
#124
Havoc

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#52
USC offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.09
#52
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#98
USC offense
#81
EPA comparison
0.11
#98
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#107
USC offense
#8
Success rates
44%
#107
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#60
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.05
#9
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
15%
#84
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

San José State
QBLuke Weaver
1278 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
65.7207/729
SPierce Walker
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
0
77.999/2969
RBJabari Bates
487 yds · 0 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.8116/1044
SCharles Cox III
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.3263/2969
STuli Tagovailoa-Amosa
23 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
73.1273/2969
WRCooper Hoch
19 rec · 285 yds · 3 TD
72.5181/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Cooper Hoch · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hoch is hampered by a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Miners on Saturday, October 17th.

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SJSU
USC
vs
Offense
65.7
#117 of 138
QB
90.3
#20 of 138
71.3
#108 of 138
RB
77.6
#51 of 138
68.2
#105 of 138
WR
81.0
#7 of 138
51.2
#138 of 138
TE
74.5
#39 of 138
61.4
#125 of 138
OL
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
82.7
#6 of 138
DL
77.9
#25 of 138
67.2
#124 of 138
LB
67.7
#122 of 138
73.0
#56 of 138
DB
68.1
#117 of 138
Common opponents