AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#10Away
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
29p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
30p
USC 46%54% IU
Spread
IU -1.5
Total
59
Moneyline
USC+119IU-119
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USC advantageevenIU advantage →
USC throw
even
USC run
IU +10
IU throw
IU +12
IU run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
IU +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · USC
MLB · IU
84.2
93.9
IU +10
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · USC
CB1 · IU
91.2
86.8
USC +4
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · IU
EDGE · USC
94.5
82.9
IU +12
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · USC
EDGE · IU
78.2
96.6
IU +18
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Jontez Williams
X · IU
CB1 · USC
78.0
77.5
dead even
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · IU
MLB · USC
77.5
68.3
IU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
USC
opponent
Indiana
home+5.8
Washington#15
-0.2away
home-7.8
Ohio State#1
-8.9home
away+14.8
Rutgers#48
+13.8away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +1.595% interval: -22.4 to 25.480% interval: -15.9 to 18.8-16+19USC wins 46%IU wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 28–28 USCIU 25–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 28–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 32–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 35–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 39–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 42–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 46–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 49–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 53–25 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 21–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 28–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 32–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 35–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 39–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 42–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 46–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 49–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 18–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 21–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 25–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 28–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 32–32 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 35–28 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 39–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 42–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 46–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 14–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 18–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 21–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 25–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 28–28 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 32–25 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 35–21 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 39–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 42–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 11–39 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 14–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIU 18–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 21–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 25–25 USC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 28–21 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIU 32–18 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 35–14 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 39–11 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 7–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 11–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 14–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 18–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 21–21 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 25–18 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 28–14 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 32–11 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 35–7 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 4–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesIU 7–28 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 11–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 14–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesIU 18–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 21–14 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 25–11 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 28–7 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 32–4 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSC +28USC +14PKIU +14IU +28margin →