CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ET
#37Away
Washington
3-1 · AVR 67.2
21
Final
#16Home
USC
4-1 · AVR 72.6
25
Forecast win probability
WASH 25.3%74.7% USC
Projected margin
USC by 9.6
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
WASH 7 to USC 31
Win probability
USC 74.7%
FinalWASH 21 · USC 25model had +9.6, off by 5.6

Current team profiles

Washington
USC

When Washington has the ball

Passing

WASH offense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH offense
#55
USC defense
#126
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH offense
#116
USC defense
#56
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH offense
#91
USC defense
#77
Success rates
42%
#91
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#76
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.24
#68
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
14%
#52
12%
#124
Havoc

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH defense
#69
USC offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.14
#69
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

WASH defense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH defense
#29
USC offense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.06
#29
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
WASH defense
#67
USC offense
#8
Success rates
40%
#67
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#41
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.16
#39
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
17%
#45
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Washington
QBDemond Williams Jr.
1327 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
71.8140/729
SAlex McLaughlin
33 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.7
Coverage
88.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
100.5
Missed tackles
5
84.527/2969
WRDezmen Roebuck
35 rec · 338 yds · 1 TD
75.1124/2069
SRahshawn Clark
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.6
Coverage
75.9
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
29.0
Missed tackles
1
74.8200/2969
TEBaron Naone
16 rec · 245 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
39.7
Run blocking
50.0
Penalties
1
73.855/1017
CBRamonz Adams Jr.
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
70.1
Missed tackles
0
73.2267/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Jayden Limar · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Limar will undergo surgery due to an upper body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Quaid Carr · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Carr will undergo surgery due to an undisclosed injury, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • CJ Christian · Sout · 2026-10-03

    Christian is sidelined due to achilles injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Demond Williams Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Williams is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against the Boilermakers on Friday.

  • Christian Moss · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Moss is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Golden Gophers on Saturday, September 26th.

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WASH
USC
vs
Offense
71.8
#95 of 138
QB
90.3
#20 of 138
67.9
#129 of 138
RB
77.6
#51 of 138
67.8
#111 of 138
WR
81.0
#7 of 138
73.8
#43 of 138
TE
74.5
#39 of 138
67.3
#74 of 138
OL
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
74.5
#58 of 138
DL
77.9
#25 of 138
69.8
#106 of 138
LB
67.7
#122 of 138
75.0
#35 of 138
DB
68.1
#117 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Washington
opponent
USC
H-1.6
PSU#43
+8.0A
A-12.7
ORE#8
-14.0H
H-8.1
IU#5
-8.1A