AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#15Away
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
27p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
32p
WASH 35%65% USC
Spread
USC -5.8
Total
59
Moneyline
WASH+187USC-187
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WASH advantageevenUSC advantage →
WASH throw
WASH +10
WASH run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
even
USC throw
WASH pass rush #72
USC +18
USC run
USC +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · USC
CB1 · WASH
91.2
82.4
USC +9
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · USC
MLB · WASH
84.2
81.2
USC +3
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · WASH
EDGE · USC
82.4
82.9
dead even
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Jontez Williams
X · WASH
CB1 · USC
86.2
77.5
WASH +9
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Darin Conley
LT · USC
EDGE · WASH
78.2
74.1
USC +4
over the middle
Carson Tabaracci
vs
Rylon Dillard-Allen
TE · USC
FS · WASH
65.3
71.4
WASH +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington
opponent
USC
away-13.7
Oregon#2
-5.4home
home+6.3
Penn State#21
+4.6away
home+0.2
Indiana#7
-1.5away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +5.895% interval: -18.1 to 29.780% interval: -11.5 to 23.2-11+23WASH wins 35%USC wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 32–25 WASHUSC 28–49 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 32–46 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 35–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 39–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 42–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 46–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 49–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 53–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 56–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 25–46 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 28–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 32–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 35–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 39–32 WASH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSC 42–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 46–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 49–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 53–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 21–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 25–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 28–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 32–32 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 35–28 WASH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 39–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 42–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 46–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 49–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 18–39 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 21–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 25–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 28–28 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 32–25 WASH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 35–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 39–18 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 42–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 46–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 14–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 18–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 21–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 25–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 28–21 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 32–18 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 35–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 39–11 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 42–7 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 11–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 14–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 18–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 21–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 25–18 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 28–14 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 32–11 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSC 35–7 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 39–4 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 7–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 11–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 14–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 18–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 21–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 25–11 WASH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 28–7 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 32–4 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 35–0 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWASH +21WASH +7USC +7USC +21USC +35margin →