CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
MD 10.5%89.5% USC
Projected margin
USC by 19.6
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
USC 1 to USC 38
Win probability
USC 89.5%

Current team profiles

Maryland
USC

When Maryland has the ball

Passing

MD offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#125
USC defense
#126
EPA comparison
-0.01
#125
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#72
USC defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#106
USC defense
#77
Success rates
40%
#106
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#112
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.25
#60
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
14%
#45
12%
#124
Havoc

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#65
USC offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#84
USC offense
#81
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#86
USC offense
#8
Success rates
42%
#86
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.20
#55
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
16%
#74
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Maryland
QBCardell Williams
63 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.87/729
WRZymear Smith
— rec · — yds · — TD
88.411/2069
WRChris Durr Jr.
42 rec · 461 yds · 4 TD
79.959/2069
LBStephen Dean III
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.3
Coverage
62.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.0184/1796
DBJamare Glasker
16 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
166
Passer rating allowed
72.0
Missed tackles
5
74.0228/2969
LBTrey Reddick
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Coverage
68.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
72.1288/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Zahir Mathis · LBout · 2026-08-13

    Mathis is battling with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Cardell Williams · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Williams is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lavon Johnson · DLQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury,, and it is undetermined if he will face against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daniel Leahy · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Leahy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MD
USC
vs
Offense
91.8
#7 of 138
QB
90.3
#20 of 138
70.1
#118 of 138
RB
77.6
#51 of 138
80.8
#9 of 138
WR
81.0
#7 of 138
61.1
#111 of 138
TE
74.5
#39 of 138
68.8
#62 of 138
OL
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
74.5
#59 of 138
DL
77.9
#25 of 138
72.5
#84 of 138
LB
67.7
#122 of 138
67.5
#122 of 138
DB
68.1
#117 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Maryland
opponent
USC
H-51.0
UCLA#24
+5.7A
A-29.0
OSU#2
-7.3H
H-13.2
PSU#43
+8.0A
H-1.8
WIS#32
+9.8A
H+3.7
RUTG#89
+7.0A