AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#47Away
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
19p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
38p
MD 9%91% USC
Spread
USC -19.3
Total
57
Moneyline
MD+1006USC-1006
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MD advantageevenUSC advantage →
MD throw
MD protection #69
even
MD run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
USC +6
USC throw
USC +33
USC run
USC +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · USC
CB1 · MD
91.2
74.9
USC +16
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · USC
EDGE · MD
78.2
76.3
dead even
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · USC
MLB · MD
84.2
68.0
USC +16
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Jontez Williams
X · MD
CB1 · USC
72.8
77.5
USC +5
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · MD
EDGE · USC
67.2
82.9
USC +16
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · MD
MLB · USC
69.0
68.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Maryland
opponent
USC
away-29.7
Ohio State#1
-7.8home
home+5.9
Wisconsin#58
+17.8away
home+3.0
Rutgers#48
+14.8away
home-7.2
Penn State#21
+4.6away
home+3.9
UCLA#53
+15.7away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +19.395% interval: -4.6 to 43.280% interval: 1.9 to 36.7+2+37MD wins 9%USC wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 39–18 MDUSC 35–42 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 39–39 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 42–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 46–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 49–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 53–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 56–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 60–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 63–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 32–39 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 35–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 39–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 42–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 46–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 49–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 53–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 56–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 60–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 28–35 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 32–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 35–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 39–25 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 42–21 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 46–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 49–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 53–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 56–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 25–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 28–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 32–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 35–21 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 39–18 MD neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 42–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 46–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 49–7 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 53–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 21–28 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 25–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 28–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 32–18 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSC 35–14 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 39–11 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 42–7 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 46–4 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 49–0 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 18–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 21–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 25–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 28–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 32–11 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 35–7 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 39–4 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 42–0 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)USC 14–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 18–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 21–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSC 25–11 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 28–7 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 32–4 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 35–0 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMD +7USC +7USC +21USC +35USC +49margin →