AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#10Away
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
36p
#58Home
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
18p
USC 89%11% WIS
Spread
USC -17.8
Total
54
Moneyline
USC-773WIS+773
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USC advantageevenWIS advantage →
USC throw
USC +39
USC run
USC +14
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
USC +26
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
USC +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Javan Robinson
X · USC
CB1 · WIS
91.2
82.8
USC +8
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Mason Posa
RB · USC
MLB · WIS
84.2
79.6
USC +5
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Junior Poyser
LT · USC
EDGE · WIS
78.2
79.0
dead even
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · WIS
MLB · USC
69.7
68.3
dead even
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Jontez Williams
X · WIS
CB1 · USC
44.2
77.5
USC +33
off the edge· hunting Joseph
Austin Kawecki
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · WIS
EDGE · USC
31.5
82.9
USC +51

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
USC
opponent
Wisconsin
home+19.3
Maryland#47
-5.9away
away+4.6
Penn State#21
-15.7away
away+15.7
UCLA#53
-4.5away
away+14.8
Rutgers#48
-0.5home

Projected margin

80% between -35 and -0
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +17.895% interval: -41.7 to 6.180% interval: -35.1 to -0.4-350USC wins 89%WIS wins 11%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 39–18 WISWIS 14–63 USC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWIS 18–60 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 21–56 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 25–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 28–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 32–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 35–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 39–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWIS 42–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWIS 11–60 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 14–56 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 18–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 21–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWIS 25–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 28–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 32–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWIS 35–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWIS 39–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWIS 7–56 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 11–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 14–49 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 18–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 21–42 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 25–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWIS 28–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWIS 32–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 35–28 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 4–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 7–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWIS 11–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 14–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWIS 18–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 21–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 25–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 28–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 32–25 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 0–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWIS 4–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWIS 7–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWIS 11–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWIS 14–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWIS 18–32 USC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWIS 21–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWIS 25–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWIS 28–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WIS 0–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWIS 4–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWIS 7–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 11–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 14–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWIS 18–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWIS 21–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWIS 25–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)WIS 0–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWIS 4–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWIS 7–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 11–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWIS 14–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWIS 18–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWIS 21–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSC +49USC +35USC +21USC +7WIS +7margin →