CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM ET
#110Away
Louisiana
1-0 · AVR 52.2
30
Final
#13Home
USC
2-0 · AVR 73.9
49
Forecast win probability
UL 6.5%93.5% USC
Projected margin
USC by 23.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
USC 4 to USC 44
Win probability
USC 93.5%
FinalUL 30 · USC 49model had +23.7, off by 4.7

Current team profiles

Louisiana
USC

When Louisiana has the ball

Passing

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#62
USC defense
#126
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#45
USC defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

UL offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL offense
#68
USC defense
#77
Success rates
44%
#68
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#70
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.19
#95
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
14%
#52
12%
#124
Havoc

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#93
USC offense
#6
EPA comparison
0.22
#93
0.55
#6
Pass EPA

Rushing

UL defense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#7
USC offense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.20
#7
0.08
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
UL defense
#94
USC offense
#8
Success rates
42%
#94
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#27
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.10
#20
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
18%
#39
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Louisiana
QBLunch Winfield
849 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
89.726/729
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
30 tkl · 5 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.8
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
29
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
157
Passer rating allowed
64.9
Missed tackles
6
90.010/2969
CBCam Riley
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
79.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
79.570/2969
SLake Bates
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.6
Coverage
77.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.2117/2969
LBLester Jones
2 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
53.4
Coverage
48.2
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.5169/1796
RBAnthony Reagan Jr.
160 yds · 2 TD · 4.1 YPC
75.2175/1044
Availability reports · 3
  • Darrell Smith · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Smith is fighting off an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Ja'Corian Norris · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Norris is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will suit up against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jerry Birdlow · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Trojans on Saturday, October 17th.

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UL
USC
vs
Offense
89.7
#25 of 138
QB
90.3
#20 of 138
73.6
#90 of 138
RB
77.6
#51 of 138
69.0
#93 of 138
WR
81.0
#7 of 138
71.5
#54 of 138
TE
74.5
#39 of 138
61.4
#124 of 138
OL
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
66.1
#133 of 138
DL
77.9
#25 of 138
70.2
#104 of 138
LB
67.7
#122 of 138
78.5
#7 of 138
DB
68.1
#117 of 138
Common opponents