AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sun Sep 13 · 3:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
15p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
43p
UL 3%97% USC
Spread
USC -28.2
Total
59
Moneyline
UL—USC—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenUSC advantage →
UL throw
USC +34
UL run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
USC +38
USC throw
UL pass rush #152
USC +68
USC run
USC +73

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · USC
CB1 · UL
91.2
71.4
USC +20
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Jontez Williams
X · UL
CB1 · USC
74.3
77.5
USC +3
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · USC
MLB · UL
84.2
54.2
USC +30
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · UL
EDGE · USC
40.5
82.9
USC +42
over the middle
Carson Tabaracci
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · USC
FS · UL
65.3
57.5
USC +8
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Maxie Baudoin IV
LT · USC
EDGE · UL
78.2
41.6
USC +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Projected margin

80% between 11 and 46
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +28.295% interval: 4.3 to 52.180% interval: 10.8 to 45.6+11+46UL wins 3%USC wins 97%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 42–14 ULUSC 39–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 42–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 46–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 49–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 53–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 56–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 60–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 63–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 67–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 46–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 49–21 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 53–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 56–14 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 60–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 63–7 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 42–21 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 46–18 UL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUSC 49–14 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 53–11 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 56–7 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 60–4 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 39–18 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 42–14 UL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUSC 46–11 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSC 49–7 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 53–4 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 56–0 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSC 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSC 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 35–14 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 39–11 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 42–7 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 46–4 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 49–0 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)USC 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 32–11 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 35–7 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 39–4 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSC 42–0 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)USC 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 28–7 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 32–4 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 35–0 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKUSC +14USC +28USC +42USC +56margin →