AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#10Away
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
38p
#48Home
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
23p
USC 84%16% RUTG
Spread
USC -14.8
Total
61
Moneyline
USC-527RUTG+527
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USC advantageevenRUTG advantage →
USC throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
USC +49
USC run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
USC +32
RUTG throw
even
RUTG run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
RUTG +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · USC
EDGE · RUTG
78.2
96.3
RUTG +18
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Jontez Williams
X · RUTG
CB1 · USC
87.1
77.5
RUTG +10
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · RUTG
EDGE · USC
73.7
82.9
USC +9
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · RUTG
MLB · USC
86.0
68.3
RUTG +18
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Ty Morris
RB · USC
MLB · RUTG
84.2
65.5
USC +19
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · USC
CB1 · RUTG
91.2
46.7
USC +45

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
USC
opponent
Rutgers
home+19.3
Maryland#47
-3.0away
away+17.8
Wisconsin#58
+0.5away
away+4.6
Penn State#21
-12.7away
away-1.5
Indiana#7
-13.8home

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +14.895% interval: -38.7 to 9.180% interval: -32.2 to 2.6-32+3USC wins 84%RUTG wins 16%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 39–25 RUTGRUTG 21–63 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 25–60 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 28–56 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRUTG 32–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 35–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 42–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 46–39 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 49–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 18–60 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 21–56 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 25–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 28–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRUTG 32–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 35–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 39–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 42–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 46–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–56 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 18–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 21–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 25–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 28–42 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 32–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 35–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 39–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 42–28 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 11–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 14–49 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 18–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 21–42 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 25–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRUTG 28–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 32–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 35–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 39–25 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 7–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 11–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 14–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 18–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 25–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 28–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 35–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 4–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 7–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 11–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 14–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 18–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 21–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRUTG 25–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 28–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 0–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 4–39 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 7–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 11–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 14–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 18–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRUTG 25–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 28–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalUSC +42USC +28USC +14PKRUTG +14margin →