Passing
FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #31
- USC defense
- #126
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.37
#126
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
FRES 6.1%93.9% USC
- Projected margin
- USC by 24.8
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- USC 4 to USC 45
- Win probability
- USC 93.9%
FinalFRES 0 · USC 39model had +24.8, off by 14.2
Current team profiles
Fresno State
USCWhen Fresno State has the ball
Rushing
USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #113
- USC defense
- #56
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES offense
- #108
- USC defense
- #77
Success rates
39%
#108
41%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#72
0.14
#103
EPA / play
1.35
#17
1.32
#110
Explosiveness
13%
#31
12%
#124
Havoc
When USC has the ball
Passing
USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #49
- USC offense
- #6
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
0.55
#6
Pass EPA
Rushing
FRES defense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #56
- USC offense
- #81
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.08
#81
Rush EPA
Drive success
USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
- FRES defense
- #83
- USC offense
- #8
Success rates
42%
#83
52%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#51
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.17
#43
1.21
#85
Explosiveness
15%
#93
10%
#9
Havoc
Current key players
Fresno StateQBJayden Mandal
1034 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
69.6157/729
WRJaylen Garrison
1 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
87.913/2069
DBSimeon Harris
24 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.2
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Targets allowed
- 21
- Rec allowed
- 12
- Yards allowed
- 94
- Passer rating allowed
- 28.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
87.715/2969
RBRayshon Luke
286 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 YPC
83.447/1044
LBJustin Johnson
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.7
- Coverage
- 78.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
82.659/1796
WRJosiah Freeman
25 rec · 322 yds · 2 TD
76.992/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Brandon Ramirez · RBout · 2026-08-11
Ramirez is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Rayshon Luke · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Luke is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Harold Duvall · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Duvall is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.
USCQBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 76.4
- Run blocking
- 52.7
- Penalties
- 1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.1
- Coverage
- 70.1
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 79
- Passer rating allowed
- 115.3
- Missed tackles
- 1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
- Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02
Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09
Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.
- Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11
O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
- Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
- Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11
Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
- Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
- Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
- Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
FRESFresno State
USCUSC
vs
Offense
69.6
#102 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.3
#20 of 138
77.3
#52 of 138
RB
Running backs
77.6
#51 of 138
79.1
#13 of 138
WR
Receivers
81.0
#7 of 138
64.3
#95 of 138
TE
Tight ends
74.5
#39 of 138
59.1
#136 of 138
OL
Offensive line
77.8
#6 of 138
Defense
72.0
#87 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.9
#25 of 138
72.3
#85 of 138
LB
Linebackers
67.7
#122 of 138
75.5
#28 of 138
DB
Secondary
68.1
#117 of 138