AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 9:00 PM
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
10p
#10Home
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
41p
FRES 2%98% USC
Spread
USC -30.9
Total
52
Moneyline
FRES—USC—
Against the market
USC +7.4line USC -23.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenUSC advantage →
FRES throw
USC +49
FRES run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
USC +13
USC throw
USC +4
USC run
FRES linebackers #91
USC +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Simeon Harris
X · USC
CB1 · FRES
91.2
91.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Sione Noa
LT · USC
EDGE · FRES
78.2
78.7
dead even
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · USC
MLB · FRES
84.2
61.1
USC +23
over the middle
Carson Tabaracci
vs
Loyall Mouzon
TE · USC
FS · FRES
65.3
78.6
FRES +13
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · FRES
EDGE · USC
52.6
82.9
USC +30
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · FRES
MLB · USC
64.5
68.3
USC +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Projected margin

80% between 10 and 48
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +30.9MKT95% interval: 1 to 5880% interval: 10 to 48+10+48FRES wins 2%USC wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 39–11 FRESUSC 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSC 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSC 49–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSC 53–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 56–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSC 60–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSC 63–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSC 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSC 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSC 46–18 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 49–14 FRES neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSC 53–11 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSC 56–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSC 60–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSC 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSC 42–14 FRES neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUSC 46–11 FRES neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUSC 49–7 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 53–4 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 56–0 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSC 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSC 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSC 39–11 FRES neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUSC 42–7 FRES neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesUSC 46–4 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 49–0 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)USC 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSC 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSC 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 35–7 FRES neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSC 39–4 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSC 42–0 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)USC 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSC 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSC 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSC 32–4 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSC 35–0 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)USC 14–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSC 18–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSC 21–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSC 25–4 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSC 28–0 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKUSC +14USC +28USC +42USC +56margin →