CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
#17Away
USC
5-1 · AVR 71.0
31
Final
#35Home
Penn State
3-2 · AVR 66.7
23
Forecast win probability
USC 52.2%47.8% PSU
Projected margin
USC by 0.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
USC 21 to PSU 20
Win probability
USC 52.2%
FinalUSC 31 · PSU 23model had -0.5, off by 7.5

Current team profiles

USC
Penn State

When USC has the ball

Passing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
USC offense
#6
PSU defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.55
#6
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
USC offense
#81
PSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.08
#81
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC offense
Higher-ranked profile
USC offense
#8
PSU defense
#58
Success rates
52%
#8
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.31
#14
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.21
#85
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
10%
#9
17%
#45
Havoc

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
USC defense
#126
PSU offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.37
#126
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
USC defense
#56
PSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

USC defense
Higher-ranked profile
USC defense
#77
PSU offense
#90
Success rates
41%
#77
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#103
0.16
#67
EPA / play
1.32
#110
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
12%
#124
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

USC
QBJayden Maiava
1744 yds · 15 TD · 3 INT
90.321/729
WRTrent Mosley
13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD
89.87/2069
RBKing Miller
493 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 YPC
77.9114/1044
WRCorey Simms
12 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
77.283/2069
TEMark Bowman
21 rec · 204 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.4
Run blocking
52.7
Penalties
1
74.549/1017
CBElbert Hill IV
3 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
70.1
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
79
Passer rating allowed
115.3
Missed tackles
1
70.9389/2969
Availability reports · 9
  • Corey Simms · WRout · 2026-10-02

    Simms is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Terrell Anderson · WRout · 2026-10-09

    Anderson has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return/recovery has yet to be established.

  • Kilian O'Connor · OGout · 2026-08-11

    O'Connor has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Deshonne Redeaux · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Redeaux is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Mark Bowman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bowman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kendarius Reddick · SQues. · 2026-10-11

    Reddick is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Roderick Tezeno · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tezeno is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Romero Ison · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ison is dealing with a foot injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Sam Huard · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Huard is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 24th.

Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USC
PSU
vs
Offense
90.3
#20 of 138
QB
67.2
#113 of 138
77.6
#51 of 138
RB
76.4
#60 of 138
81.0
#7 of 138
WR
79.8
#11 of 138
74.5
#39 of 138
TE
68.7
#73 of 138
77.8
#6 of 138
OL
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
77.9
#25 of 138
DL
72.0
#85 of 138
67.7
#122 of 138
LB
78.5
#33 of 138
68.1
#117 of 138
DB
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

USC
opponent
Penn State
A+9.8
WIS#32
-4.0H
A+7.0
RUTG#89
+19.5H
H+19.6
MD#72
+13.2A
H+4.0
WASH#45
+1.6A