AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#10Away
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
32p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
27p
USC 62%38% PSU
Spread
USC -4.6
Total
59
Moneyline
USC-164PSU+164
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USC advantageevenPSU advantage →
USC throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
USC +25
USC run
USC +32
PSU throw
PSU +15
PSU run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
PSU +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · USC
CB1 · PSU
91.2
81.6
USC +10
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · USC
MLB · PSU
84.2
71.4
USC +13
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Jontez Williams
X · PSU
CB1 · USC
71.0
77.5
USC +6
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · PSU
MLB · USC
79.7
68.3
PSU +11
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · USC
EDGE · PSU
78.2
63.1
USC +15
over the middle
Carson Tabaracci
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · USC
FS · PSU
65.3
71.5
PSU +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
USC
opponent
Penn State
home+19.3
Maryland#47
+7.2away
home+5.8
Washington#15
-6.3away
away+14.8
Rutgers#48
+12.7home
away+17.8
Wisconsin#58
+15.7home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +4.695% interval: -28.5 to 19.380% interval: -22 to 12.8-22+13USC wins 62%PSU wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 32–25 PSUPSU 21–56 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 25–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 28–49 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 32–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 35–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 39–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 42–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 46–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 49–28 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 18–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 21–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 25–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 28–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 32–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 35–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 39–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 42–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 46–25 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 14–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 18–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 21–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 25–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 28–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 32–32 USC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 35–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 39–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 42–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 11–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 14–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 18–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 21–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 25–32 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 28–28 USC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 32–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 35–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 39–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 7–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 11–39 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 14–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 18–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 21–28 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 25–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 28–21 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 32–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 35–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 4–39 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 7–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 11–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 14–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 18–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 21–21 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 25–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 28–14 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 32–11 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 0–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPSU 4–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 7–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 11–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 14–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 18–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 21–14 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 25–11 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 28–7 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSC +35USC +21USC +7PSU +7PSU +21margin →