AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Victory Bell
#10Away
USC
1-0 · AVR 74.6
37p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
21p
USC 85%15% UCLA
Spread
USC -15.7
Total
58
Moneyline
USC-576UCLA+576
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USC advantageevenUCLA advantage →
USC throw
USC +16
USC run
USC +10
UCLA throw
USC +8
UCLA run
USC front #30USC linebackers #99
UCLA +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USC throws
Tanook Hines
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · USC
CB1 · UCLA
91.2
89.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Maiava
Elijah Paige
vs
Sahir West
LT · USC
EDGE · UCLA
78.2
93.8
UCLA +16
when USC runs
King Miller
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · USC
MLB · UCLA
84.2
84.8
dead even
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Jontez Williams
X · UCLA
CB1 · USC
87.0
77.5
UCLA +10
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Kameryn Crawford
LT · UCLA
EDGE · USC
69.2
82.9
USC +14
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Deven Bryant
RB · UCLA
MLB · USC
82.7
68.3
UCLA +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
USC
WRTanook Hines
91.23/777
QBJayden Maiava
90.05/308
RBKing Miller
84.210/514
WRTerrell Anderson
78.824/777
CBJontez Williamsprobable
77.5120/1427
CBProphet Brown
75.7145/1427

also out — Kilian O'Connor (OL), OL (OL), unknown (OL), Peak (OL), wide receiver (WR), Jahkeem Stewart (DL), Terrell Anderson Ruled

UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
USC
opponent
UCLA
home-5.4
Oregon#2
-28.6away
home+19.3
Maryland#47
-3.9away
away+17.8
Wisconsin#58
+4.5home

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSC +15.795% interval: -40.3 to 8.980% interval: -33.6 to 2.2-34+2USC wins 85%UCLA wins 15%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USC 35–21 UCLAUCLA 18–60 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 21–56 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 25–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 28–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 32–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 35–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 42–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 46–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 14–56 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–53 USC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–49 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 25–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–53 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 14–49 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–46 USC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–49 USC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 11–46 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 14–42 USC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 USC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 USC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 4–46 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 7–42 USC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 11–39 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 USC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 USC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 USC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 0–42 USC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 4–39 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 7–35 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 USC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 USC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 USC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UCLA 0–35 USC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 4–32 USC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 USC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 USC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 USC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 USC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 USC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 USC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSC +42USC +28USC +14PKUCLA +14margin →