AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
11p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
43p
MRSH 1%99% PSU
Spread
PSU -32.3
Total
55
Moneyline
MRSH—PSU—
Against the market
PSU +7.8line PSU -24.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenPSU advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97PSU coverage #19
even
MRSH run
PSU +30
PSU throw
PSU +41
PSU run
PSU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · PSU
MLB · MRSH
79.7
81.8
dead even
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · PSU
CB1 · MRSH
71.0
79.3
MRSH +8
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · MRSH
CB1 · PSU
67.4
81.6
PSU +14
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · PSU
FS · MRSH
66.3
62.5
PSU +4
over the middle
Toby Payne
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · MRSH
FS · PSU
56.9
71.5
PSU +15
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · MRSH
MLB · PSU
51.6
71.4
PSU +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Projected margin

80% between 13 and 50
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +32.3MKT95% interval: 4 to 5980% interval: 13 to 50+13+50MRSH wins 1%PSU wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 46–11 MRSHPSU 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 49–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 53–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 56–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 60–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 63–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 67–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 70–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 46–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 49–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 53–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 56–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 60–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 63–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 67–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 42–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 46–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 49–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 53–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 56–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 60–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 63–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 39–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 42–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 46–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesPSU 49–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 53–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 56–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PSU 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 35–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 39–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 42–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 46–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 49–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)PSU 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 32–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 35–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 39–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 42–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)PSU 21–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 25–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 28–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 32–4 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 35–0 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPSU +7PSU +21PSU +35PSU +49PSU +63margin →