CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
#101Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 51.6
0
Final
#11Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 69.8
45
Forecast win probability
MRSH 16.0%84.0% PSU
Projected margin
PSU by 15.9
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
MRSH 5 to PSU 36
Win probability
PSU 84.0%
FinalMRSH 0 · PSU 45model had +15.9, off by 29.1

Current team profiles

Marshall
Penn State

When Marshall has the ball

Passing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#62
PSU defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

MRSH offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#107
PSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH offense
#64
PSU defense
#58
Success rates
44%
#64
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#85
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.24
#66
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#45
Havoc

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#138
PSU offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.50
#138
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#112
PSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
MRSH defense
#117
PSU offense
#90
Success rates
46%
#117
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
0.31
#135
0.16
#67
EPA / play
1.31
#107
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
13%
#113
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

Marshall
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
977 yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
72.8131/729
SKendell Anderson
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.4
Coverage
81.4
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-4
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
81.744/2969
RBTJ Lester
107 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
76.3145/1044
LBBrysen Davies
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
72.4281/1796
SPete Schuh
8 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
61.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
71.1371/2969
STerrente Hinton
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
56.0
Coverage
67.9
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
82.5
Missed tackles
4
70.2430/2969
Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MRSH
PSU
vs
Offense
72.8
#91 of 138
QB
67.2
#113 of 138
72.7
#101 of 138
RB
76.4
#60 of 138
63.4
#136 of 138
WR
79.8
#11 of 138
65.9
#87 of 138
TE
68.7
#73 of 138
65.2
#93 of 138
OL
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
75.2
#52 of 138
DL
72.0
#85 of 138
66.2
#129 of 138
LB
78.5
#33 of 138
71.2
#79 of 138
DB
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents