Passing
PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS offense
- #74
- PSU defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.21
#74
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 5:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
WIS 17.2%82.8% PSU
- Projected margin
- PSU by 13.3
- Projected total
- 46
- 80% outcome range
- WIS 4 to PSU 31
- Win probability
- PSU 82.8%
FinalWIS 24 · PSU 20model had +13.3, off by 17.3
Current team profiles
WisconsinPenn StateWhen Wisconsin has the ball
Rushing
WIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS offense
- #35
- PSU defense
- #112
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
0.15
#112
Rush EPA
Drive success
PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS offense
- #105
- PSU defense
- #58
Success rates
40%
#105
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#66
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.47
#2
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
15%
#74
17%
#45
Havoc
When Penn State has the ball
Passing
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS defense
- #1
- PSU offense
- #33
EPA comparison
-0.16
#1
0.36
#33
Pass EPA
Rushing
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS defense
- #63
- PSU offense
- #93
EPA comparison
0.03
#63
0.04
#93
Rush EPA
Drive success
WIS defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WIS defense
- #22
- PSU offense
- #90
Success rates
35%
#22
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#5
0.16
#67
EPA / play
0.96
#2
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
16%
#72
14%
#45
Havoc
Current key players
WisconsinQBRyan Hopkins
— yds · — TD · — INT
71.5144/729
LBMason Posa
40 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.5
- Coverage
- 81.0
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 29
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
89.216/1796
LBCooper Catalano
45 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 89.8
- Coverage
- 76.1
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 10
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.827/1796
TEJacob Harris
13 rec · 238 yds · 3 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 71.7
- Run blocking
- 77.1
- Penalties
- 2
84.412/1017
WRTyrell Henry
26 rec · 339 yds · 1 TD
82.437/2069
SMatthew Jung
32 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.2
- Coverage
- 75.5
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 133
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
76.9131/2969
Availability reports · 4
- Abu Sama III · RBQues. · 2026-10-03
Sama III is nursing an upper body injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Lane · RBQues. · 2026-10-08
Lane is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Danny O'Neil · QBQues. · 2026-10-03
O'Neil is managing a lower body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jaylon Domingeaux · WRQues. · 2026-10-03
Domingeaux is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against UCLA on Saturday, October 17th.
Penn StateQBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.1
- Coverage
- 93.6
- Targets allowed
- 0
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Missed tackles
- 1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.6
- Coverage
- 87.8
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 25
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.7
- Coverage
- 79.7
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 33
- Passer rating allowed
- 14.8
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
- Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23
Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12
Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.
- Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t
- Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.
- D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob
Position units
Position-unit comparison
WISWisconsin
PSUPenn State
vs
Offense
71.5
#97 of 138
QB
Quarterback
67.2
#113 of 138
72.8
#100 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.4
#60 of 138
71.6
#66 of 138
WR
Receivers
79.8
#11 of 138
84.4
#12 of 138
TE
Tight ends
68.7
#73 of 138
72.3
#31 of 138
OL
Offensive line
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
70.3
#103 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.0
#85 of 138
86.8
#1 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.5
#33 of 138
73.6
#48 of 138
DB
Secondary
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Wisconsin
opponent
Penn State
Aaway+3.0
PURPurdue#67+19.7Hhome
Hhome+6.2
MINNMinnesota#54+17.6Hhome
Hhome+8.1
RUTGRutgers#89+19.5Hhome
Aaway+1.8
MDMaryland#72+13.2Aaway
Hhome-9.8
USCUSC#17-8.0Hhome