AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#58Away
Wisconsin
0-0 · AVR 51.9
18p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
33p
WIS 14%86% PSU
Spread
PSU -15.7
Total
51
Moneyline
WIS+622PSU-622
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WIS advantageevenPSU advantage →
WIS throw
WIS QB #24WIS WR #129
PSU +19
WIS run
WIS line #100WIS backs #47
PSU +10
PSU throw
PSU +36
PSU run
PSU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Mason Posa
RB · PSU
MLB · WIS
79.7
79.6
dead even
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Javan Robinson
X · PSU
CB1 · WIS
71.0
82.8
WIS +12
when WIS runs
Abu Sama III
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · WIS
MLB · PSU
69.7
71.4
dead even
when WIS throws
Shamar Rigby
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · WIS
CB1 · PSU
44.2
81.6
PSU +37
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Bryce West
TE · PSU
FS · WIS
66.3
43.8
PSU +23
over the middle
Grant Stec
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · WIS
FS · PSU
36.5
71.5
PSU +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wisconsin
CBJavan Robinson
82.864/1427
SMarvin Burks Jr.
82.269/1427
LBMason Posa
79.659/878
QBColton Joseph
78.524/308
LBSebastian Cheeks
74.7108/878
RBAbu Sama III
69.754/514
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wisconsin
opponent
Penn State
away-0.6
Purdue#69
+17.6home
home-17.8
USC#10
-4.6home
home-0.5
Rutgers#48
+12.7home
away-5.9
Maryland#47
+7.2away
home+0.2
Minnesota#54
+13.3home

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +15.795% interval: -8.2 to 39.680% interval: -1.7 to 33-2+33WIS wins 14%PSU wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 32–18 WISPSU 28–42 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 32–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 35–35 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 39–32 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 42–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 46–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 49–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 53–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 56–14 WIS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 25–39 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 28–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 32–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 35–28 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 39–25 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 42–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 46–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 49–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 53–11 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 21–35 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 25–32 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 28–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 32–25 WIS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 35–21 WIS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 39–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 42–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 46–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 49–7 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 18–32 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 21–28 WIS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 25–25 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 28–21 WIS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 32–18 WIS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 35–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 39–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 42–7 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 46–4 WIS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 14–28 WIS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 18–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 21–21 WIS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 25–18 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 28–14 WIS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 32–11 WIS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 35–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 39–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 42–0 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 11–25 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 14–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 18–18 WIS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 21–14 WIS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 25–11 WIS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 28–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 32–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 35–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PSU 7–21 WIS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 11–18 WIS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 14–14 WIS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 18–11 WIS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 21–7 WIS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 25–4 WIS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 28–0 WIS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalWIS +14PKPSU +14PSU +28PSU +42margin →