AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
Governor's Victory Bell
#54Away
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
20p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
33p
MINN 18%82% PSU
Spread
PSU -13.3
Total
53
Moneyline
MINN+444PSU-444
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MINN advantageevenPSU advantage →
MINN throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
even
MINN run
even
PSU throw
MINN pass rush #20
PSU +26
PSU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · PSU
MLB · MINN
79.7
78.3
dead even
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
John Nestor
X · PSU
CB1 · MINN
71.0
71.9
dead even
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · MINN
CB1 · PSU
61.2
81.6
PSU +20
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · MINN
MLB · PSU
69.0
71.4
dead even
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Rhyland Kelly
TE · PSU
FS · MINN
66.3
54.5
PSU +12
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · MINN
EDGE · PSU
50.2
63.1
PSU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Minnesota
opponent
Penn State
away+1.7
Purdue#69
+17.6home
away-0.2
Wisconsin#58
+15.7home
away-17.1
Washington#15
-6.3away
home-13.1
Michigan#13
-7.2away
home-2.9
Northwestern#37
+2.9away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +13.395% interval: -10.6 to 37.280% interval: -4 to 30.7-4+31MINN wins 18%PSU wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 35–21 MINNPSU 32–46 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 35–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 39–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 42–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 46–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 49–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 53–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 56–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 60–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 28–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 32–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 35–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 39–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 42–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 46–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 49–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 53–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 56–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 25–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 28–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 32–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 35–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 39–25 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 42–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 46–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 49–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 53–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 21–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 25–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 28–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 32–25 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 35–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 39–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 42–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 46–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 49–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 18–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 21–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 25–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 28–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 32–18 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 35–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 39–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 42–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 46–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 14–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 18–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 21–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 25–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 28–14 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPSU 32–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 35–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 39–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 42–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 11–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 14–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 18–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 21–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 25–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 28–7 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 32–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 35–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMINN +14PKPSU +14PSU +28PSU +42margin →