AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#21Away
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
23p
#13Home
Michigan
0-0 · AVR 73.3
30p
PSU 31%69% MICH
Spread
MICH -7.2
Total
53
Moneyline
PSU+218MICH-218
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PSU advantageevenMICH advantage →
PSU throw
PSU +5
PSU run
MICH linebackers #95
PSU +22
MICH throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
MICH +26
MICH run
MICH +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MICH throws
Andrew Marsh
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · MICH
CB1 · PSU
84.8
81.6
MICH +3
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Smith Snowden
X · PSU
CB1 · MICH
71.0
88.1
MICH +17
when MICH runs
Jordan Marshall
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · MICH
MLB · PSU
80.1
71.4
MICH +9
off the edge· hunting Underwood
Nathan Efobi
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · MICH
EDGE · PSU
88.1
63.1
MICH +25
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Troy Bowles
RB · PSU
MLB · MICH
79.7
65.7
PSU +14
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Mason Curtis
TE · PSU
FS · MICH
66.3
67.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Michigan
CBSmith Snowden
88.120/1427
WRAndrew Marsh
84.815/777
QBBryce Underwood
84.012/308
WRJJ Buchanan
82.318/777
CBJyaire Hill
80.687/1427
RBJordan Marshall
80.122/514

also out — QB (QB), Former Michigan sacks leader, RB (RB), Ace Hamilton (OL), Andrew Babalola (OL), Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan Football Freshman Lineman (OL), Michigan freshman +5 more

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Penn State
opponent
Michigan
home+12.7
Rutgers#48
+12.4away
home+13.3
Minnesota#54
+13.1away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMICH +7.295% interval: -16.7 to 31.180% interval: -10.1 to 24.6-10+25PSU wins 31%MICH wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MICH 32–25 PSUMICH 28–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 32–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 35–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 39–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMICH 42–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 46–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMICH 49–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 53–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMICH 56–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMICH 25–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 28–42 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 32–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 35–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 39–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 42–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMICH 46–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 49–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 53–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 21–42 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 25–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 28–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 32–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 35–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMICH 39–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMICH 42–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMICH 46–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 49–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–39 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 21–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 25–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 28–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 32–25 PSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMICH 35–21 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 39–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 42–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 46–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 14–35 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 18–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 21–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 25–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMICH 28–21 PSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMICH 32–18 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 35–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMICH 39–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMICH 42–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 11–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 14–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMICH 18–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 21–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMICH 25–18 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMICH 28–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMICH 32–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMICH 35–7 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMICH 39–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMICH 7–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMICH 11–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMICH 14–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMICH 18–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 21–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMICH 25–11 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMICH 28–7 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMICH 32–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMICH 35–0 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalPSU +21PSU +7MICH +7MICH +21MICH +35margin →