CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
RUTG 10.9%89.1% PSU
Projected margin
PSU by 19.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
PSU 1 to PSU 38
Win probability
PSU 89.1%

Current team profiles

Rutgers
Penn State

When Rutgers has the ball

Passing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG offense
#41
PSU defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.32
#41
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG offense
#121
PSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
-0.03
#121
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

RUTG offense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG offense
#56
PSU defense
#58
Success rates
45%
#56
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#86
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.34
#18
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
15%
#79
17%
#45
Havoc

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG defense
#128
PSU offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.38
#128
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG defense
#122
PSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.19
#122
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
RUTG defense
#124
PSU offense
#90
Success rates
46%
#124
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#127
0.16
#67
EPA / play
1.24
#78
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
12%
#125
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

Rutgers
QBAJ Surace
475 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
65.6208/729
TEKam Anthony
2 rec · 22 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.6
Run blocking
77.5
Penalties
0
90.22/1017
WRKJ Duff
33 rec · 628 yds · 7 TD
87.416/2069
RBAntwan Raymond
469 yds · 4 TD · 5.3 YPC
74.8179/1044
DBKaj Sanders
12 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
70.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
23
Passer rating allowed
89.6
Missed tackles
2
72.6297/2969
DBDK Gilley
19 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.7
Coverage
72.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
3
72.3314/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Kevin Levy · CBout · 2026-09-17

    Levy is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against USC on Saturday.

  • Dylan Lonergan · QBout · 2026-10-04

    Lonergan is dealing with an head injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Antwan Raymond · RBQues. · 2026-09-30

    Raymond is dealing with undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available Saturday against the Indiana.

  • Famah Toure · WRQues. · 2026-09-11

    Toure is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the USC on Saturday, September 19th.

  • Dino Kaliakmanis · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Kaliakmanis is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to suit up against USC on Sunday.

Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Position units

Position-unit comparison

RUTG
PSU
vs
Offense
65.6
#118 of 138
QB
67.2
#113 of 138
72.3
#104 of 138
RB
76.4
#60 of 138
71.5
#69 of 138
WR
79.8
#11 of 138
90.2
#2 of 138
TE
68.7
#73 of 138
75.6
#14 of 138
OL
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
71.5
#91 of 138
DL
72.0
#85 of 138
65.5
#133 of 138
LB
78.5
#33 of 138
69.5
#105 of 138
DB
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Rutgers
opponent
Penn State
A-3.7
MD#72
+13.2A
H-8.5
MICH#23
+3.0A
A-15.7
NU#16
-21.0A
A-8.1
WIS#32
-4.0H
H-7.0
USC#17
-8.0H