AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#48Away
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
23p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
35p
RUTG 19%81% PSU
Spread
PSU -12.7
Total
58
Moneyline
RUTG+415PSU-415
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RUTG advantageevenPSU advantage →
RUTG throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
even
RUTG run
RUTG +30
PSU throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
PSU +46
PSU run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
PSU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · RUTG
CB1 · PSU
87.1
81.6
RUTG +6
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · RUTG
MLB · PSU
86.0
71.4
RUTG +15
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Ty Morris
RB · PSU
MLB · RUTG
79.7
65.5
PSU +14
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · RUTG
EDGE · PSU
73.7
63.1
RUTG +11
over the middle
Jackson Gister
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · RUTG
FS · PSU
57.2
71.5
PSU +14
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · PSU
CB1 · RUTG
71.0
46.7
PSU +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rutgers
opponent
Penn State
away+0.5
Wisconsin#58
+15.7home
home-14.8
USC#10
-4.6home
away-3.0
Maryland#47
+7.2away
away-7.3
Northwestern#37
+2.9away
home-12.4
Michigan#13
-7.2away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +12.795% interval: -11.2 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30.1-5+30RUTG wins 19%PSU wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 35–21 RUTGPSU 32–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 35–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 39–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 42–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 46–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 49–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 53–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 56–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 60–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 28–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 32–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 35–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 39–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 42–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 46–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 49–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 53–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPSU 56–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 25–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 28–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 32–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 35–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 39–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 42–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 46–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 49–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 53–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 21–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 25–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 28–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 32–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 35–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesPSU 39–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 42–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 46–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 49–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 18–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 21–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 25–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 28–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 32–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 35–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPSU 39–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 42–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 46–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 14–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 18–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 21–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 25–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPSU 28–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 32–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPSU 35–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 39–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 42–0 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 11–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPSU 14–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 18–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 21–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPSU 25–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 28–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 32–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPSU 35–0 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalRUTG +14PKPSU +14PSU +28PSU +42margin →