AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#69Away
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
19p
#21Home
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
36p
PUR 11%89% PSU
Spread
PSU -17.6
Total
55
Moneyline
PUR+777PSU-777
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PUR advantageevenPSU advantage →
PUR throw
PUR protection #96PSU coverage #19
PSU +19
PUR run
PSU +17
PSU throw
PSU +59
PSU run
PSU +48

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · PUR
CB1 · PSU
68.9
81.6
PSU +13
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Mister Clark
X · PSU
CB1 · PUR
71.0
73.5
dead even
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Charles Correa
RB · PSU
MLB · PUR
79.7
64.8
PSU +15
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · PUR
MLB · PSU
56.4
71.4
PSU +15
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · PUR
EDGE · PSU
57.3
63.1
PSU +6
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Smiley Bradford
TE · PSU
FS · PUR
66.3
52.1
PSU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Purdue
opponent
Penn State
home+0.6
Wisconsin#58
+15.7home
home-1.7
Minnesota#54
+13.3home
home-16.3
Washington#15
-6.3away
home-2.8
Maryland#47
+7.2away

Projected margin

80% between 0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +17.695% interval: -6.3 to 41.580% interval: 0.2 to 34.9+0+35PUR wins 11%PSU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 39–18 PURPSU 35–42 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 39–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 42–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 46–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 49–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPSU 53–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 56–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPSU 60–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPSU 63–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPSU 32–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 35–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 39–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 42–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 46–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 49–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPSU 53–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPSU 56–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 60–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 28–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 32–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPSU 35–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 39–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 42–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPSU 46–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 49–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 53–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 56–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 25–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 28–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 32–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 35–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 39–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPSU 42–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 46–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPSU 49–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 53–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 21–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 25–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 28–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPSU 32–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 35–14 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPSU 39–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPSU 42–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPSU 46–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPSU 49–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPSU 18–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPSU 21–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 25–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 28–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPSU 32–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPSU 35–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 39–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPSU 42–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PSU 14–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPSU 18–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPSU 21–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 25–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 28–7 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPSU 32–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPSU 35–0 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPUR +7PSU +7PSU +21PSU +35PSU +49margin →