CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
PUR 10.1%89.9% PSU
Projected margin
PSU by 19.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
PSU 1 to PSU 38
Win probability
PSU 89.9%

Current team profiles

Purdue
Penn State

When Purdue has the ball

Passing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#24
PSU defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#63
PSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#44
PSU defense
#58
Success rates
46%
#44
39%
#58
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#29
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.21
#83
1.22
#73
Explosiveness
12%
#30
17%
#45
Havoc

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#119
PSU offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.34
#119
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#125
PSU offense
#93
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#120
PSU offense
#90
Success rates
46%
#120
42%
#90
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#132
0.16
#67
EPA / play
1.40
#127
1.23
#70
Explosiveness
14%
#105
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

Purdue
QBRyan Browne
1390 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
77.595/729
WRAsaad Waseem
27 rec · 453 yds · 1 TD
83.630/2069
DBMister Clark
5 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
76.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
95.8
Missed tackles
1
79.965/2969
RBFame Ijeboi
354 yds · 6 TD · 4.1 YPC
79.590/1044
WRXavier Townsend
28 rec · 307 yds · 2 TD
74.0146/2069
LBHudson Miller
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.4
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
70.1362/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Kylan Fox · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PUR
PSU
vs
Offense
77.5
#72 of 138
QB
67.2
#113 of 138
75.2
#72 of 138
RB
76.4
#60 of 138
77.0
#26 of 138
WR
79.8
#11 of 138
69.3
#69 of 138
TE
68.7
#73 of 138
61.7
#121 of 138
OL
71.1
#45 of 138
Defense
72.2
#83 of 138
DL
72.0
#85 of 138
65.6
#132 of 138
LB
78.5
#33 of 138
66.1
#133 of 138
DB
80.2
#1 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Purdue
opponent
Penn State
H-10.2
WASH#45
+1.6A
H+1.4
MD#72
+13.2A
H+28.0
MINN#54
+17.6H
H-3.0
WIS#32
-4.0H