AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#21Away
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
39p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
18p
PSU 93%7% TEM
Spread
PSU -21.2
Total
56
Moneyline
PSU-1235TEM+1235
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PSU advantageevenTEM advantage →
PSU throw
PSU +67
PSU run
PSU +70
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
PSU +26
TEM run
PSU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · TEM
CB1 · PSU
64.8
81.6
PSU +17
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Adrian Laing
X · PSU
CB1 · TEM
71.0
72.1
dead even
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · PSU
MLB · TEM
79.7
61.6
PSU +18
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · TEM
FS · PSU
65.5
71.5
PSU +6
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · TEM
MLB · PSU
55.8
71.4
PSU +16
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Avery Powell
TE · PSU
FS · TEM
66.3
44.8
PSU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Projected margin

80% between -39 and -4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +21.295% interval: -45.2 to 2.780% interval: -38.6 to -3.9-39-4PSU wins 93%TEM wins 7%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 39–18 TEMTEM 14–63 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 18–60 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 21–56 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 25–53 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 28–49 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 32–46 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 35–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 39–39 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 42–35 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 11–60 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 14–56 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 18–53 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 21–49 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 25–46 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–42 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 32–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 35–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 39–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 7–56 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 11–53 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 14–49 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 18–46 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 21–42 PSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 25–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 32–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 35–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 4–53 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 7–49 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 11–46 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 14–42 PSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 18–39 PSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEM 21–35 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 25–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 28–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 32–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 0–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 4–46 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 7–42 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 11–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 14–35 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 18–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 21–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 25–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 28–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TEM 0–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 4–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 7–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 11–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 14–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 18–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 21–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 25–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TEM 0–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 4–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 7–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 11–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 14–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 18–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 21–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalPSU +49PSU +35PSU +21PSU +7TEM +7margin →