AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#21Away
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
30p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
23p
PSU 69%31% MD
Spread
PSU -7.2
Total
53
Moneyline
PSU-225MD+225
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PSU advantageevenMD advantage →
PSU throw
PSU +30
PSU run
PSU +28
MD throw
MD protection #69PSU coverage #19
even
MD run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · MD
CB1 · PSU
72.8
81.6
PSU +9
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · PSU
MLB · MD
79.7
68.0
PSU +12
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · PSU
CB1 · MD
71.0
74.9
MD +4
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Caleb Bacon
RB · MD
MLB · PSU
69.0
71.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · MD
EDGE · PSU
67.2
63.1
MD +4
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Messiah Delhomme
TE · PSU
FS · MD
66.3
54.1
PSU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Penn State
opponent
Maryland
home+17.6
Purdue#69
+2.8away
home-4.6
USC#10
-19.3away
home+15.7
Wisconsin#58
+5.9home
home+12.7
Rutgers#48
+3.0home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKPSU +7.295% interval: -31.8 to 17.480% interval: -25.1 to 10.7-25+11PSU wins 69%MD wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PSU 32–25 MDMD 21–56 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 25–53 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 28–49 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 32–46 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 35–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 39–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 42–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 46–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 49–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 18–53 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 21–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 25–46 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 28–42 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 32–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 35–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 39–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 42–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 46–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 14–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 18–46 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 21–42 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 25–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 28–35 PSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 32–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 35–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 39–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 42–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 14–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 18–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 21–35 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 25–32 PSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMD 28–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 32–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 35–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 39–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 7–42 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 14–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 18–32 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 21–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 25–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 28–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 32–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 35–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 4–39 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 7–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 11–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 14–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 18–25 PSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 21–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 25–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 28–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 32–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 0–35 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 4–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 7–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 11–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 14–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 18–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 21–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 25–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 28–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalPSU +35PSU +21PSU +7MD +7MD +21margin →