CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
PSU 54.0%46.0% WASH
Projected margin
PSU by 1.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
PSU 20 to WASH 17
Win probability
PSU 54.0%

Current team profiles

Penn State
Washington

When Penn State has the ball

Passing

PSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU offense
#33
WASH defense
#69
EPA comparison
0.36
#33
0.14
#69
Pass EPA

Rushing

WASH defense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU offense
#93
WASH defense
#29
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.06
#29
Rush EPA

Drive success

WASH defense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU offense
#90
WASH defense
#67
Success rates
42%
#90
40%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#67
0.00
#41
EPA / play
1.23
#70
1.16
#39
Explosiveness
14%
#45
17%
#45
Havoc

When Washington has the ball

Passing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU defense
#20
WASH offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU defense
#112
WASH offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

PSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
PSU defense
#58
WASH offense
#91
Success rates
39%
#58
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
0.13
#76
EPA / play
1.22
#73
1.24
#68
Explosiveness
17%
#45
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Penn State
QBAlex Manske
102 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
67.2189/729
WRKoby Howard
12 rec · 344 yds · 2 TD
93.02/2069
SBryson Williams
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.1
Coverage
93.6
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
1
92.82/2969
LBTony Rojas
34 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
87.8
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
25
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.038/1796
RBCam Wallace
125 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 YPC
77.4126/1044
CBDaryus Dixson
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
14.8
Missed tackles
1
77.2114/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Koby Howard · WRout · 2026-09-23

    Howard is tending to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Max Granville · DLout · 2026-09-12

    Granville has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

  • Brian Kortovich · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kortovich is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cristiano Rosa · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rosa is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wolverines on Saturday, October 17th.

  • D'Antae Sheffey · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sheffey is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Wolverines on Saturday, Octob

Washington
QBDemond Williams Jr.
1327 yds · 8 TD · 3 INT
71.8140/729
SAlex McLaughlin
33 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.7
Coverage
88.8
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
100.5
Missed tackles
5
84.527/2969
WRDezmen Roebuck
35 rec · 338 yds · 1 TD
75.1124/2069
SRahshawn Clark
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.6
Coverage
75.9
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
29.0
Missed tackles
1
74.8200/2969
TEBaron Naone
16 rec · 245 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
39.7
Run blocking
50.0
Penalties
1
73.855/1017
CBRamonz Adams Jr.
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
70.1
Missed tackles
0
73.2267/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Jayden Limar · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Limar will undergo surgery due to an upper body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Quaid Carr · RBout · 2026-09-07

    Carr will undergo surgery due to an undisclosed injury, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • CJ Christian · Sout · 2026-10-03

    Christian is sidelined due to achilles injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Demond Williams Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Williams is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against the Boilermakers on Friday.

  • Christian Moss · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Moss is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Golden Gophers on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PSU
WASH
vs
Offense
67.2
#113 of 138
QB
71.8
#95 of 138
76.4
#60 of 138
RB
67.9
#129 of 138
79.8
#11 of 138
WR
67.8
#111 of 138
68.7
#73 of 138
TE
73.8
#43 of 138
71.1
#45 of 138
OL
67.3
#74 of 138
Defense
72.0
#85 of 138
DL
74.5
#58 of 138
78.5
#33 of 138
LB
69.8
#106 of 138
80.2
#1 of 138
DB
75.0
#35 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Penn State
opponent
Washington
H+17.6
MINN#54
-3.0H
H+19.7
PUR#67
+10.2A
H-8.0
USC#17
-4.0A