AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#21Away
Penn State
0-0 · AVR 67.5
25p
#15Home
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
31p
PSU 34%66% WASH
Spread
WASH -6.3
Total
56
Moneyline
PSU+197WASH-197
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PSU advantageevenWASH advantage →
PSU throw
WASH pass rush #72
PSU +14
PSU run
PSU +23
WASH throw
PSU coverage #19PSU pass rush #93
WASH +17
WASH run
WASH +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Marcus Neal Jr.
X · WASH
CB1 · PSU
86.2
81.6
WASH +5
when PSU runs
Carson Hansen
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · PSU
MLB · WASH
79.7
81.2
dead even
when PSU throws
Brett Eskildsen
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · PSU
CB1 · WASH
71.0
82.4
WASH +11
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Yvan Kemajou
LT · WASH
EDGE · PSU
82.4
63.1
WASH +19
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Jeremiah Cooper
TE · WASH
FS · PSU
71.5
71.5
dead even
over the middle
Andrew Rappleyea
vs
Rylon Dillard-Allen
TE · PSU
FS · WASH
66.3
71.4
WASH +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Penn State
QBRocco Becht
90.14/308
SMarcus Neal Jr.
81.674/1427
CBDaryus Dixson
80.389/1427
RBCarson Hansen
79.724/514
CBJahmir Joseph
74.1162/1427
LBCaleb Bacon
71.4129/878

also out — Alex Tatsch (LB), Alex Manske (QB), Eagles CB (CB), OL commit (OL), Penn State Football 2027 Commit

Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Penn State
opponent
Washington
home+13.3
Minnesota#54
+17.1home
home+17.6
Purdue#69
+16.3away
home-4.6
USC#10
-5.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +6.395% interval: -17.6 to 30.280% interval: -11.1 to 23.7-11+24PSU wins 34%WASH wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 32–25 PSUWASH 28–49 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 32–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 35–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 39–39 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 42–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 46–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 49–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 53–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 56–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 25–46 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 28–42 PSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 32–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 35–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 39–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 42–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 46–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 49–21 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 53–18 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 21–42 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 25–39 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 28–35 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 32–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 35–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 39–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 42–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 46–18 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 49–14 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 18–39 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 21–35 PSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 25–32 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 28–28 PSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWASH 32–25 PSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWASH 35–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 39–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 42–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 46–11 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–35 PSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 18–32 PSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 21–28 PSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 25–25 PSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 28–21 PSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 32–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 35–14 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 39–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 42–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 11–32 PSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–28 PSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 18–25 PSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 21–21 PSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 25–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 28–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 32–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 35–7 PSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 39–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 7–28 PSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 11–25 PSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 14–21 PSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 18–18 PSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 21–14 PSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 25–11 PSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 28–7 PSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 32–4 PSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 35–0 PSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalPSU +21PSU +7WASH +7WASH +21WASH +35margin →