AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
26p
#116Home
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
26p
BGSU 48%52% BUF
Spread
BUF -0.5
Total
52
Moneyline
BGSU+108BUF-108
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenBUF advantage →
BGSU throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +22
BGSU run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +37
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
BGSU +55
BUF run
BGSU +42

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · BUF
EDGE · BGSU
40.5
95.5
BGSU +55
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · BGSU
MLB · BUF
52.8
78.1
BUF +25
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · BUF
CB1 · BGSU
35.9
79.7
BGSU +44
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · BUF
MLB · BGSU
46.0
69.1
BGSU +23
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Miles Greer
X · BGSU
CB1 · BUF
38.4
76.3
BUF +38
over the middle
Eli Jacon-Duffy
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · BGSU
FS · BUF
35.3
57.6
BUF +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Bowling Green
opponent
Buffalo
home+10.8
Ball State#136
+3.8away
away-9.4
Western Michigan#84
-6.4home
away-6.1
Miami (OH)#91
-8.1away
away-10.3
Toledo#73
-12.3away
home+22.3
Massachusetts#138
+20.3home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBUF +0.595% interval: -23.4 to 24.480% interval: -16.9 to 17.9-17+18BGSU wins 48%BUF wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BUF 25–25 BGSUBUF 21–49 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 25–46 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 28–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBUF 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBUF 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 18–46 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 21–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 25–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBUF 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 14–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 18–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 21–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBUF 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 11–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 14–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 18–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBUF 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 7–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 11–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 14–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBUF 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBUF 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 4–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 7–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 11–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBUF 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 0–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBUF 4–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBUF 7–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 11–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 14–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 18–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 21–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 25–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBUF 28–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalBGSU +28BGSU +14PKBUF +14BUF +28margin →