Passing
BGSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #87
- BUF defense
- #96
EPA comparison
0.15
#87
0.24
#96
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BGSU 43.1%56.9% BUF
- Projected margin
- BUF by 2.8
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- BGSU 16 to BUF 21
- Win probability
- BUF 56.9%
Current team profiles
Bowling Green
BuffaloWhen Bowling Green has the ball
Rushing
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #136
- BUF defense
- #56
EPA comparison
-0.12
#136
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #123
- BUF defense
- #48
Success rates
38%
#123
38%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#126
0.11
#91
EPA / play
1.05
#134
1.29
#98
Explosiveness
17%
#109
15%
#81
Havoc
When Buffalo has the ball
Passing
BGSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #75
- BUF offense
- #118
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.05
#118
Pass EPA
Rushing
BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #121
- BUF offense
- #105
EPA comparison
0.18
#121
0.02
#105
Rush EPA
Drive success
BGSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #117
- BUF offense
- #130
Success rates
46%
#117
35%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#95
0.03
#114
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.19
#93
Explosiveness
14%
#107
16%
#94
Havoc
Current key players
Bowling GreenQBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 68.4
- Penalties
- 0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 69.3
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 67
- Passer rating allowed
- 99.5
- Missed tackles
- 5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.9
- Coverage
- 61.5
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26
Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10
Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BGSUBowling Green
BUFBuffalo
vs
Offense
61.2
#128 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.9
#62 of 138
76.8
#56 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.5
#76 of 138
64.1
#134 of 138
WR
Receivers
65.1
#129 of 138
69.8
#66 of 138
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#6 of 138
60.3
#130 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.5
#110 of 138
Defense
68.9
#117 of 138
DL
Defensive line
76.3
#43 of 138
62.2
#138 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#54 of 138
67.0
#125 of 138
DB
Secondary
64.7
#135 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Bowling Green
opponent
Buffalo
Aaway-17.8
TOLToledo#80+15.0Aaway
Aaway+4.0
M-OHMiami (OH)#115-8.7Aaway
Aaway-9.7
WMUWestern Michigan#79-3.0Hhome
Hhome+5.4
BALLBall State#164+0.2Aaway
Hhome+10.1
MASSMassachusetts#134+10.2Hhome