AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Wed Nov 4
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
22p
#91Home
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
30p
BUF 29%71% M-OH
Spread
M-OH -8.1
Total
52
Moneyline
BUF+248M-OH-248
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenM-OH advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
M-OH +69
BUF run
M-OH +53
M-OH throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +17
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143BUF front #123
BUF +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Miles Greer
X · M-OH
CB1 · BUF
55.3
76.3
BUF +21
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · BUF
MLB · M-OH
46.0
82.1
M-OH +36
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · M-OH
MLB · BUF
48.3
78.1
BUF +30
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Ben Minich
X · BUF
CB1 · M-OH
35.9
88.7
M-OH +53
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · M-OH
FS · BUF
58.9
57.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · M-OH
EDGE · BUF
54.0
62.0
BUF +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Buffalo
opponent
Miami (OH)
away-3.1
Akron#115
+7.5home
home+0.5
Bowling Green#114
+6.1home
home+20.3
Massachusetts#138
+20.9away
home-6.4
Western Michigan#84
-5.9away
home+0.4
Central Michigan#107
+0.9away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKM-OH +8.195% interval: -15.8 to 3280% interval: -9.3 to 25.5-9+26BUF wins 29%M-OH wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 28–21 BUFM-OH 25–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 28–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 32–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 49–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 53–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 21–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 25–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 28–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesM-OH 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 46–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 49–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 18–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 21–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 25–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 42–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 46–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 14–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 21–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesM-OH 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesM-OH 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesM-OH 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesM-OH 39–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 42–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 11–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 14–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 18–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 35–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 39–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 7–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 11–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 14–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 32–4 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 35–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 4–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 7–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 11–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 14–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 18–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesM-OH 21–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 25–4 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 28–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBUF +21BUF +7M-OH +7M-OH +21M-OH +35margin →