Passing
WMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU offense
- #92
- BUF defense
- #96
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.24
#96
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
WMU 94.3%5.7% BUF
- Projected margin
- WMU by 22.1
- Projected total
- 46
- 80% outcome range
- WMU 40 to WMU 4
- Win probability
- WMU 94.3%
FinalWMU 20 · BUF 17model had -22.1, off by 19.1
Current team profiles
Western Michigan
BuffaloWhen Western Michigan has the ball
Rushing
WMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU offense
- #51
- BUF defense
- #56
EPA comparison
0.15
#51
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU offense
- #85
- BUF defense
- #48
Success rates
42%
#85
38%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#73
0.11
#91
EPA / play
1.15
#108
1.29
#98
Explosiveness
13%
#42
15%
#81
Havoc
When Buffalo has the ball
Passing
WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU defense
- #65
- BUF offense
- #118
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
0.05
#118
Pass EPA
Rushing
WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU defense
- #47
- BUF offense
- #105
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.02
#105
Rush EPA
Drive success
WMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WMU defense
- #105
- BUF offense
- #130
Success rates
44%
#105
35%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#64
0.03
#114
EPA / play
1.08
#16
1.19
#93
Explosiveness
13%
#109
16%
#94
Havoc
Current key players
Western MichiganQBTrey Petty
54 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
90.815/729
LBJustyce Betts
35 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 78.1
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
88.121/1796
WRAveion Chenault
18 rec · 272 yds · 1 TD
82.240/2069
LBDillon Moore
28 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.1
- Coverage
- 68.3
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 18
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 2
80.775/1796
RBJalen Buckley
287 yds · 5 TD · 4.6 YPC
77.6122/1044
TENate Levicki
8 rec · 112 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 63.6
- Run blocking
- 68.3
- Penalties
- 0
75.545/1017
Availability reports · 1
- Michael Dersa · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Dersa is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Chippewas on Saturday, October 17th.
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
WMUWestern Michigan
BUFBuffalo
vs
Offense
90.8
#15 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.9
#62 of 138
68.5
#126 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.5
#76 of 138
69.5
#88 of 138
WR
Receivers
65.1
#129 of 138
75.5
#36 of 138
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#6 of 138
60.3
#131 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.5
#110 of 138
Defense
77.6
#28 of 138
DL
Defensive line
76.3
#43 of 138
78.8
#28 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#54 of 138
68.9
#112 of 138
DB
Secondary
64.7
#135 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Western Michigan
opponent
Buffalo
Aaway-10.7
TOLToledo#80+15.0Aaway
Hhome+3.6
M-OHMiami (OH)#115-8.7Aaway
Aaway+7.9
AKRAkron#140+1.0Aaway
Hhome+9.7
BGSUBowling Green#144+2.8Hhome
Aaway+0.1
CMUCentral Michigan#138-1.6Hhome