AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
28p
#116Home
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
22p
WMU 67%33% BUF
Spread
WMU -6.4
Total
50
Moneyline
WMU-203BUF+203
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenBUF advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
BUF +6
WMU run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
WMU +19
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
WMU +60
BUF run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · WMU
MLB · BUF
62.8
78.1
BUF +15
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · WMU
EDGE · BUF
72.2
62.0
WMU +10
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Miles Greer
X · WMU
CB1 · BUF
47.0
76.3
BUF +29
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · BUF
EDGE · WMU
40.5
81.6
WMU +41
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · BUF
CB1 · WMU
35.9
78.2
WMU +42
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Domanick Moon
RB · BUF
MLB · WMU
46.0
56.5
WMU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Michigan
opponent
Buffalo
home+5.9
Miami (OH)#91
-8.1away
away+5.9
Akron#115
-3.1away
away-3.4
Toledo#73
-12.3away
home+9.4
Bowling Green#114
+0.5home
away+4.3
Central Michigan#107
+0.4home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWMU +6.495% interval: -30.3 to 17.580% interval: -23.8 to 10.9-24+11WMU wins 67%BUF wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WMU 28–21 BUFBUF 18–53 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBUF 21–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 25–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBUF 28–42 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 32–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 35–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBUF 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 14–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 18–46 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 21–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 25–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBUF 28–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 32–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBUF 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 11–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 14–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 18–39 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 21–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 25–32 WMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBUF 28–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 7–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 11–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 14–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 18–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 21–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBUF 25–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBUF 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 4–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 7–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 11–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 14–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBUF 18–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBUF 21–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 0–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 4–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 7–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 11–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBUF 14–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 18–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBUF 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BUF 0–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBUF 4–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 7–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 11–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 14–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBUF 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalWMU +35WMU +21WMU +7BUF +7BUF +21margin →