Passing
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU offense
- #130
- BUF defense
- #96
EPA comparison
-0.06
#130
0.24
#96
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 12 · Wed Nov 18 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
CMU 53.5%46.5% BUF
- Projected margin
- CMU by 1.6
- Projected total
- 50
- 80% outcome range
- CMU 20 to BUF 17
- Win probability
- CMU 53.5%
Current team profiles
Central MichiganBuffaloWhen Central Michigan has the ball
Rushing
CMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU offense
- #45
- BUF defense
- #56
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU offense
- #119
- BUF defense
- #48
Success rates
38%
#119
38%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#103
0.11
#91
EPA / play
1.24
#66
1.29
#98
Explosiveness
14%
#50
15%
#81
Havoc
When Buffalo has the ball
Passing
CMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU defense
- #71
- BUF offense
- #118
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.05
#118
Pass EPA
Rushing
BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU defense
- #107
- BUF offense
- #105
EPA comparison
0.14
#107
0.02
#105
Rush EPA
Drive success
CMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- CMU defense
- #126
- BUF offense
- #130
Success rates
47%
#126
35%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#108
0.03
#114
EPA / play
1.11
#24
1.19
#93
Explosiveness
15%
#90
16%
#94
Havoc
Current key players
Central MichiganQBAngel Flores
201 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
76.4101/729
DBCoen Ali
10 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.2
- Coverage
- 88.0
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 23
- Passer rating allowed
- 46.3
- Missed tackles
- 2
88.114/2969
DBJustin Taylor
27 tkl · 4 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 72.6
- Coverage
- 89.0
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 27
- Passer rating allowed
- 11.5
- Missed tackles
- 2
84.826/2969
RBJayden Clerveaux
219 yds · 1 TD · 5.9 YPC
77.6123/1044
DBKameran Hayward
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 64.2
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 33
- Passer rating allowed
- 27.1
- Missed tackles
- 0
75.6172/2969
TEGavin Spillers
1 rec · 8 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 51.1
- Run blocking
- 70.6
- Penalties
- 0
71.772/1017
Availability reports · 2
- J. Allen · TEout · 2026-09-15
VanWetzinga is sidelined with a knee injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Rusty VanWetzinga IV · FBQues. · 2026-10-10
VanWetzinga is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Broncos on Saturday, October 17
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
CMUCentral Michigan
BUFBuffalo
vs
Offense
76.4
#76 of 138
QB
Quarterback
78.9
#62 of 138
73.2
#94 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.5
#76 of 138
64.3
#133 of 138
WR
Receivers
65.1
#129 of 138
71.7
#53 of 138
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#6 of 138
65.5
#92 of 138
OL
Offensive line
63.5
#110 of 138
Defense
70.5
#99 of 138
DL
Defensive line
76.3
#43 of 138
67.5
#123 of 138
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#54 of 138
78.4
#8 of 138
DB
Secondary
64.7
#135 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Central Michigan
opponent
Buffalo
Hhome+24.0
AKRAkron#140+1.0Aaway
Hhome+0.9
M-OHMiami (OH)#115-8.7Aaway
Aaway+4.4
BALLBall State#164+0.2Aaway
Hhome-0.1
WMUWestern Michigan#79-3.0Hhome