AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Wed Nov 18 · 5:00 AM
#107Away
Central Michigan
0-0 · AVR 37.6
26p
#116Home
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
26p
CMU 49%51% BUF
Spread
BUF -0.4
Total
52
Moneyline
CMU+104BUF-104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CMU advantageevenBUF advantage →
CMU throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +7
CMU run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +8
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
CMU +45
BUF run
CMU linebackers #141
CMU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CMU runs
Brock Townsend
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · CMU
MLB · BUF
57.2
78.1
BUF +21
when CMU throws
Langston Lewis
vs
Miles Greer
X · CMU
CB1 · BUF
53.7
76.3
BUF +23
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Nathan VanTimmeren
LT · BUF
EDGE · CMU
40.5
85.9
CMU +45
off the edge· hunting Flores
John Iannuzzi
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · CMU
EDGE · BUF
61.4
62.0
dead even
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Jaion Jackson
X · BUF
CB1 · CMU
35.9
76.0
CMU +40
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Jeremiah Alston
RB · BUF
MLB · CMU
46.0
47.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Central Michigan
DBJaion Jackson
76.0140/1427
DBKyle Krebs
68.1278/1427
DBKeyton Jones
64.4377/1427
DBTysen Campbell
63.1404/1427
RBBrock Townsend
57.2138/514
WRLangston Lewis
53.7198/777
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Central Michigan
opponent
Buffalo
home+4.1
Akron#115
-3.1away
home-0.9
Miami (OH)#91
-8.1away
home-4.3
Western Michigan#84
-6.4home
away+5.9
Ball State#136
+3.8away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBUF +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18CMU wins 49%BUF wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BUF 25–25 CMUBUF 21–49 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 25–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 28–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBUF 32–39 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 35–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBUF 39–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 42–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 46–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 49–21 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 18–46 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 21–42 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 25–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 28–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 32–32 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 35–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 39–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 42–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 46–18 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 14–42 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 18–39 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 21–35 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 25–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 28–28 CMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBUF 32–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 35–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 39–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 42–14 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 11–39 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 14–35 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 18–32 CMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 21–28 CMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 25–25 CMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBUF 28–21 CMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 32–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 35–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 39–11 CMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 7–35 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 11–32 CMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 14–28 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 18–25 CMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 21–21 CMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBUF 25–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBUF 28–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 32–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 35–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 4–32 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 7–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 11–25 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 14–21 CMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 18–18 CMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBUF 21–14 CMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 25–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBUF 28–7 CMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBUF 32–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 0–28 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBUF 4–25 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBUF 7–21 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 11–18 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 14–14 CMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 18–11 CMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 21–7 CMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 25–4 CMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBUF 28–0 CMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalCMU +28CMU +14PKBUF +14BUF +28margin →