AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 5:00 AM
#116Away
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
25p
#115Home
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
28p
BUF 41%59% AKR
Spread
AKR -3.1
Total
52
Moneyline
BUF+142AKR-142
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BUF advantageevenAKR advantage →
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
AKR +25
BUF run
BUF +8
AKR throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +8
AKR run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · AKR
MLB · BUF
62.7
78.1
BUF +15
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
Miles Greer
X · AKR
CB1 · BUF
54.0
76.3
BUF +22
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · BUF
EDGE · AKR
40.5
81.4
AKR +41
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
Zach Hobson
X · BUF
CB1 · AKR
35.9
69.2
AKR +33
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Jacari Bennett
LT · AKR
EDGE · BUF
38.0
62.0
BUF +24
over the middle
Conner Cravaack
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · AKR
FS · BUF
34.2
57.6
BUF +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Buffalo
opponent
Akron
home+0.4
Central Michigan#107
-4.1away
home+20.3
Massachusetts#138
+15.9away
home+13.9
Robert Morris
+14.5home
away-8.1
Miami (OH)#91
-7.5away
home-6.4
Western Michigan#84
-5.9home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAKR +3.195% interval: -21.5 to 27.680% interval: -14.8 to 20.9-15+21BUF wins 41%AKR wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AKR 25–25 BUFAKR 21–49 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 25–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 28–42 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 32–39 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 35–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 39–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 42–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 46–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 49–21 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 18–46 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 21–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 25–39 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 28–35 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 32–32 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 35–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAKR 39–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 42–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 46–18 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 14–42 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 18–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 21–35 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 25–32 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAKR 28–28 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 32–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 35–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 39–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 42–14 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 11–39 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 14–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 18–32 BUF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAKR 21–28 BUF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAKR 25–25 BUF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAKR 28–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAKR 32–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 35–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAKR 39–11 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 7–35 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 11–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAKR 14–28 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 18–25 BUF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAKR 21–21 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 25–18 BUF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAKR 28–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAKR 32–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAKR 35–7 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 4–32 BUF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAKR 7–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAKR 11–25 BUF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAKR 14–21 BUF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAKR 18–18 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 21–14 BUF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAKR 25–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 28–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAKR 32–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAKR 0–28 BUF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAKR 4–25 BUF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAKR 7–21 BUF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAKR 11–18 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 14–14 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 18–11 BUF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAKR 21–7 BUF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAKR 25–4 BUF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAKR 28–0 BUF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalBUF +28BUF +14PKAKR +14AKR +28margin →