CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Fri Nov 27 · 12:00 PM ET
#149Away
Buffalo
3-3 · AVR 45.3
28p
#140Home
Akron
1-5 · AVR 46.4
27p
Forecast win probability
BUF 52.1%47.9% AKR
Projected margin
BUF by 1.0
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
BUF 20 to AKR 18
Win probability
BUF 52.1%

Current team profiles

Buffalo
Akron

When Buffalo has the ball

Passing

BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#118
AKR defense
#130
EPA comparison
0.05
#118
0.44
#130
Pass EPA

Rushing

BUF offense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#105
AKR defense
#112
EPA comparison
0.02
#105
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

AKR defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF offense
#130
AKR defense
#112
Success rates
35%
#130
45%
#112
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#114
0.25
#132
EPA / play
1.19
#93
1.31
#108
Explosiveness
16%
#94
13%
#117
Havoc

When Akron has the ball

Passing

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#96
AKR offense
#101
EPA comparison
0.24
#96
0.11
#101
Pass EPA

Rushing

AKR offense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#56
AKR offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.16
#45
Rush EPA

Drive success

BUF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BUF defense
#48
AKR offense
#77
Success rates
38%
#48
43%
#77
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#91
0.09
#92
EPA / play
1.29
#98
1.08
#131
Explosiveness
15%
#81
19%
#129
Havoc

Current key players

Buffalo
QBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.6
Run blocking
59.6
Penalties
0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.0
Coverage
75.2
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
58.4
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
  • Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06

    Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.

  • James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.

Akron
QBCibastian Broughton
380 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
69.0172/729
LBDonelius Johnson
41 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
74.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
81.265/1796
DBCatrell White
7 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.4
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
84.6
Missed tackles
0
77.5107/2969
CBDawayne Galloway Jr.
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.7
Coverage
75.8
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
75.8164/2969
DBKhory Moss
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
2
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
74.6205/2969
RBJordan Gant
289 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
72.6237/1044
Availability reports · 6
  • Paul Davis · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against RedHawks on Saturday, October

  • Cibastian Broughton · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gee is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against RedHawks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Luke Sivon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sivon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against RedHawks on Saturday, October 17th

  • Cameron Monteiro · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Monteiro is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against RedHawks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Chris Gee · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gee is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against RedHawks on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaborree Riggins · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Riggins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against RedHawks on Saturday, Octobe

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BUF
AKR
vs
Offense
78.9
#62 of 138
QB
69.0
#106 of 138
74.5
#76 of 138
RB
70.3
#117 of 138
65.1
#129 of 138
WR
69.5
#87 of 138
88.6
#6 of 138
TE
58.8
#129 of 138
63.5
#110 of 138
OL
68.2
#66 of 138
Defense
76.3
#43 of 138
DL
70.6
#97 of 138
75.7
#54 of 138
LB
70.2
#105 of 138
64.7
#135 of 138
DB
72.2
#68 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Buffalo
opponent
Akron
H+3.0
RMU#224
+35.0H
H-1.6
CMU#138
-24.0A
H+10.2
MASS#134
+1.3A
H-3.0
WMU#79
-7.9H
A-8.7
M-OH#115
-12.3A