AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Flagship Cup
#138Away
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
16p
#116Home
Buffalo
0-0 · AVR 33.9
36p
MASS 8%92% BUF
Spread
BUF -20.3
Total
52
Moneyline
MASS+1114BUF-1114
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MASS advantageevenBUF advantage →
MASS throw
BUF pass rush #123
BUF +34
MASS run
BUF front #123BUF linebackers #14
BUF +50
BUF throw
BUF protection #76
MASS +5
BUF run
BUF +11

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
SaVeon Brown
RB · MASS
MLB · BUF
50.1
78.1
BUF +28
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Miles Greer
X · MASS
CB1 · BUF
36.2
76.3
BUF +40
when BUF runs
Terrance Shelton Jr.
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · BUF
MLB · MASS
46.0
56.4
MASS +10
off the edge· hunting Wright
Gabriel Arena
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · BUF
EDGE · MASS
40.5
59.9
MASS +19
when BUF throws
Chance Morrow
vs
DD Snyder
X · BUF
CB1 · MASS
35.9
61.2
MASS +25
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Oliver Bridges
TE · MASS
FS · BUF
38.7
57.6
BUF +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308
Buffalo
LBSaVeon Brown
78.179/878
SMiles Greer
76.3135/1427
CBKobi Blackwell
73.2174/1427
SXavier Leonard
66.6320/1427
CBOliver Bridges
57.6542/1427
CBMikey Crawford
55.6602/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Massachusetts
opponent
Buffalo
away-22.3
Bowling Green#114
+0.5home
away-30.1
Toledo#73
-12.3away
home-9.1
Ball State#136
+3.8away
home-15.9
Akron#115
-3.1away
home-20.9
Miami (OH)#91
-8.1away

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBUF +20.395% interval: -3.6 to 44.280% interval: 2.9 to 37.7+3+38MASS wins 8%BUF wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BUF 35–14 MASSBUF 32–39 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 35–35 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 39–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBUF 42–28 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 46–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBUF 49–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBUF 53–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBUF 56–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 60–11 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 28–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 32–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 35–28 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 39–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBUF 42–21 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBUF 46–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 49–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 53–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 56–7 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 25–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 28–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 32–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 35–21 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBUF 39–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesBUF 42–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 46–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 49–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBUF 53–4 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 21–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 25–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 28–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 32–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBUF 35–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesBUF 39–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBUF 42–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 46–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 49–0 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 18–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBUF 21–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBUF 25–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBUF 28–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBUF 32–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBUF 35–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBUF 39–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBUF 42–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BUF 14–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBUF 18–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBUF 21–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 25–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBUF 28–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBUF 32–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBUF 35–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)BUF 11–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBUF 14–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBUF 18–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBUF 21–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBUF 25–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBUF 28–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalMASS +7BUF +7BUF +21BUF +35BUF +49margin →