Passing
No comparison
- UALB offense
- —
- BUF defense
- #96
EPA comparison
—
0.24
#96
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Thu Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UALB 5.1%94.9% BUF
- Projected margin
- BUF by 26.1
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- BUF 6 to BUF 47
- Win probability
- BUF 94.9%
FinalUALB 17 · BUF 21model had +26.1, off by 22.1
Current team profiles
UAlbany
BuffaloWhen UAlbany has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- UALB offense
- —
- BUF defense
- #56
EPA comparison
—
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- UALB offense
- #46
- BUF defense
- #48
Success rates
45%
#46
38%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#75
0.11
#91
EPA / play
0.18
#104
1.29
#98
Explosiveness
—
15%
#81
Havoc
When Buffalo has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- UALB defense
- —
- BUF offense
- #118
EPA comparison
—
0.05
#118
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- UALB defense
- —
- BUF offense
- #105
EPA comparison
—
0.02
#105
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- UALB defense
- #13
- BUF offense
- #130
Success rates
39%
#13
35%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#34
0.03
#114
EPA / play
0.18
#20
1.19
#93
Explosiveness
—
16%
#94
Havoc
Current key players
UAlbanyLBDillon Dunathan
38 tkl · 5.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.7
- Coverage
- 79.3
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 23
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.633/1054
RBJoey Koch
386 yds · 3 TD · 6.2 YPC
77.359/631
OLJoe McMahon
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 78.5
- Run blocking
- 71.2
- Penalties
- 0
73.757/1368
DLShawan Lewis
17 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 5.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.3
- Pressures
- 9
- Pass-rush snaps
- 103
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.4198/1549
DBDana Johnson Jr.
30 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.4
- Coverage
- 65.8
- Targets allowed
- 12
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 181
- Passer rating allowed
- 158.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
72.1268/1765
DBVictor Holt
27 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.4
- Coverage
- 75.4
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 12
- Yards allowed
- 61
- Passer rating allowed
- 68.1
- Missed tackles
- 5
71.8288/1765
BuffaloQBElijah Holmes
253 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
78.980/729
TEMichael Gelatko
1 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.6
- Run blocking
- 59.6
- Penalties
- 0
88.66/1017
LBZach Bergmann
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 85.0
- Coverage
- 75.2
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.886/1796
WRChance Morrow
32 rec · 400 yds · 6 TD
77.087/2069
RBMessiah Burch
352 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0151/1044
LBStevie Bracey
19 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 58.4
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.9217/1796
Availability reports · 9
- Elijah Holmes · QBout · 2026-10-06
Holmes is battling with a knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Jasaiah Gathings · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gathings is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- Bobby Mays · WRout · 2026-10-10
Mays is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Terrell Richards · WRout · 2026-10-10
Richards is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery.
- James McNeil Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
McNeil Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Terrance Shelton Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Shelton Jr. is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Alvin Jones III · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Blake Sholder · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Sholder is nursing a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jeremiah Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against UMASS on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UALBUAlbany
BUFBuffalo
vs
Offense
65.9
#87 of 125
QB
Quarterback
78.9
#62 of 138
73.0
#55 of 126
RB
Running backs
74.5
#76 of 138
63.8
#113 of 126
WR
Receivers
65.1
#129 of 138
56.2
#113 of 124
TE
Tight ends
88.6
#6 of 138
64.5
#59 of 125
OL
Offensive line
63.5
#110 of 138
Defense
68.4
#94 of 126
DL
Defensive line
76.3
#43 of 138
73.9
#38 of 126
LB
Linebackers
75.7
#54 of 138
68.5
#98 of 126
DB
Secondary
64.7
#135 of 138