AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#84Away
Western Michigan
0-0 · AVR 45.6
24p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
27p
WMU 41%59% TOL
Spread
TOL -3.4
Total
51
Moneyline
WMU+144TOL-144
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WMU advantageevenTOL advantage →
WMU throw
WMU WR #137WMU protection #19
TOL +22
WMU run
TOL linebackers #35
WMU +20
TOL throw
WMU +34
TOL run
WMU linebackers #114
WMU +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WMU runs
Jalen Buckley
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · WMU
MLB · TOL
62.8
79.0
TOL +16
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
August Johanningsmeier
LT · TOL
EDGE · WMU
57.7
81.6
WMU +24
off the edge· hunting Lowry
Hunter Whitenack
vs
Nathaniel Chandler
LT · WMU
EDGE · TOL
72.2
61.4
WMU +11
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Daeh McCullough
X · TOL
CB1 · WMU
52.1
78.2
WMU +26
when WMU throws
Aveion Chenault
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · WMU
CB1 · TOL
47.0
79.6
TOL +33
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Joshua Franklin
TE · TOL
FS · WMU
52.4
67.3
WMU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Michigan
SDaeh McCullough
78.2111/1427
CBJarvarius Sims
77.0126/1427
SJoey Pope
68.7269/1427
RBJalen Buckley
62.887/514
LBDomanick Moon
56.5363/878
QBBroc Lowry
53.1120/308
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Michigan
opponent
Toledo
away+6.4
Buffalo#116
+12.3home
home+8.5
Eastern Michigan#112
+4.3away
home+9.4
Bowling Green#114
+10.3home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +3.495% interval: -20.5 to 27.380% interval: -14 to 20.7-14+21WMU wins 41%TOL wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 25–25 WMUTOL 21–49 WMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 25–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 28–42 WMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 32–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 35–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 39–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 42–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 46–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 49–21 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 18–46 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 21–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 25–39 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 28–35 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 32–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 35–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTOL 39–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 42–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 46–18 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 14–42 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 18–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 21–35 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 25–32 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 28–28 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 32–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 35–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 39–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 42–14 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 11–39 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 14–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 18–32 WMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 21–28 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 25–25 WMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 28–21 WMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 32–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 35–14 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 39–11 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 7–35 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 11–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 14–28 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 18–25 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 21–21 WMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 25–18 WMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 28–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 32–11 WMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 35–7 WMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 4–32 WMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 7–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 11–25 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 14–21 WMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 18–18 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 21–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 25–11 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 28–7 WMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 32–4 WMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 0–28 WMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 4–25 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 7–21 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 11–18 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 14–14 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 18–11 WMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 21–7 WMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 25–4 WMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 28–0 WMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalWMU +28WMU +14PKTOL +14TOL +28margin →