AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#73Away
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
30p
#112Home
Eastern Michigan
0-0 · AVR 35.0
26p
TOL 62%38% EMU
Spread
TOL -4.3
Total
56
Moneyline
TOL-163EMU+163
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TOL advantageevenEMU advantage →
TOL throw
TOL +18
TOL run
TOL +18
EMU throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +7
EMU run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when EMU throws
Harold Mack
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · EMU
CB1 · TOL
61.6
79.6
TOL +18
over the middle
Joshua Long
vs
Andrew Fineske
TE · EMU
FS · TOL
61.5
69.7
TOL +8
when EMU runs
Joey Mattord
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · EMU
MLB · TOL
50.0
79.0
TOL +29
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Quincy Byas
LT · TOL
EDGE · EMU
57.7
64.9
EMU +7
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Bryce Llewellyn
X · TOL
CB1 · EMU
52.1
61.5
EMU +9
off the edge· hunting Kim
Tyler McMillan
vs
Nathaniel Chandler
LT · EMU
EDGE · TOL
48.5
61.4
TOL +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287
Eastern Michigan
WRHarold Mack
61.6104/777
TEJoshua Long
61.536/287
DBBryce Llewellyn
61.5443/1427
QBNoah Kim
60.466/308
LBBarry Manning
57.4341/878
WRBenson Prosper
51.2279/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Toledo
opponent
Eastern Michigan
away-1.1
Sacramento State#111
+15.5home
home+3.4
Western Michigan#84
-8.5away
home+30.1
Massachusetts#138
+18.3away
away-17.6
Michigan State#65
-10.3away
away+1.6
Ohio#101
-5.3away

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +4.395% interval: -28.3 to 19.680% interval: -21.7 to 13-22+13TOL wins 62%EMU wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 32–25 EMUEMU 21–56 TOL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesEMU 25–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 28–49 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesEMU 32–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 35–42 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 39–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 42–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesEMU 46–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 49–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesEMU 18–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 21–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 25–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesEMU 28–42 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 32–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 35–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 39–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesEMU 42–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 46–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 14–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 18–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 21–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 25–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 28–35 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 32–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 35–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 39–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 42–21 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 11–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 14–42 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 18–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 21–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 25–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesEMU 28–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 32–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesEMU 35–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 39–18 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 7–42 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesEMU 11–39 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesEMU 14–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 18–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesEMU 21–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesEMU 25–25 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesEMU 28–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesEMU 32–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 35–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesEMU 4–39 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesEMU 7–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesEMU 11–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesEMU 14–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesEMU 18–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesEMU 21–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesEMU 25–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 28–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesEMU 32–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 0–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesEMU 4–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesEMU 7–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesEMU 11–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesEMU 14–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesEMU 18–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesEMU 21–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesEMU 25–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesEMU 28–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTOL +35TOL +21TOL +7EMU +7EMU +21margin →