AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Wed Nov 11 · 5:00 AM
#138Away
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
11p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
41p
MASS 2%98% TOL
Spread
TOL -30.1
Total
53
Moneyline
MASS—TOL—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MASS advantageevenTOL advantage →
MASS throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +50
MASS run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +50
TOL throw
TOL +21
TOL run
TOL +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · MASS
MLB · TOL
50.1
79.0
TOL +29
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · TOL
EDGE · MASS
57.7
59.9
dead even
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · MASS
CB1 · TOL
36.2
79.6
TOL +43
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
DD Snyder
X · TOL
CB1 · MASS
52.1
61.2
MASS +9
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Andrew Fineske
TE · MASS
FS · TOL
38.7
69.7
TOL +31
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · TOL
MLB · MASS
49.8
56.4
MASS +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Massachusetts
opponent
Toledo
away-20.3
Buffalo#116
+12.3home
away-22.3
Bowling Green#114
+10.3home
away-28.7
Sacramento State#111
-1.1away
home-9.1
Ball State#136
+13.6away
home-18.3
Eastern Michigan#112
+4.3away

Projected margin

80% between 13 and 48
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +30.195% interval: 6.2 to 5480% interval: 12.7 to 47.5+13+48MASS wins 2%TOL wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 42–14 MASSTOL 39–39 MASS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTOL 42–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 46–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 49–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 53–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 56–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 60–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 63–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 67–11 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 35–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 39–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 42–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 46–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 49–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 53–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTOL 56–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 60–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 63–7 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 32–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 35–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 39–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 42–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 46–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 49–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 53–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 56–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTOL 60–4 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 28–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 32–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 35–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 39–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 42–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTOL 46–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTOL 49–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 53–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 56–0 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 25–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 28–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 32–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 35–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 39–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTOL 42–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTOL 46–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 49–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TOL 21–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 25–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 28–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 32–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 35–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTOL 39–4 MASS neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 42–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TOL 18–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 21–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 25–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 28–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 32–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 35–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKTOL +14TOL +28TOL +42TOL +56margin →