AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Wed Nov 4 · 5:00 AM
#73Away
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
27p
#111Home
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
28p
TOL 47%53% SAC
Spread
SAC -1.1
Total
56
Moneyline
TOL+114SAC-114
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TOL advantageevenSAC advantage →
TOL throw
TOL +22
TOL run
TOL +24
SAC throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +55
SAC run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · SAC
MLB · TOL
46.2
79.0
TOL +33
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · SAC
CB1 · TOL
38.4
79.6
TOL +41
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · TOL
EDGE · SAC
57.7
52.5
TOL +5
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · TOL
CB1 · SAC
52.1
33.6
TOL +19
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · TOL
MLB · SAC
49.8
28.6
TOL +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Toledo
opponent
Sacramento State
away+4.3
Eastern Michigan#112
-15.5away
home+10.3
Bowling Green#114
+3.8away
away+1.6
Ohio#101
+5.1home
away+13.6
Ball State#136
+12.1away
home+30.1
Massachusetts#138
+28.7home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +1.195% interval: -22.8 to 2580% interval: -16.3 to 18.4-16+18TOL wins 47%SAC wins 53%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 28–28 TOLSAC 25–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 28–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 32–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 35–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 39–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 42–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 46–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 49–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 53–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 21–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 25–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 28–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSAC 32–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 35–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 39–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSAC 42–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 46–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 49–21 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 18–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 21–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 25–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 28–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSAC 32–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSAC 35–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSAC 39–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 42–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 46–18 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 14–42 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 18–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 21–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 25–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSAC 28–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSAC 32–25 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSAC 35–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSAC 39–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 42–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 11–39 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 14–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSAC 18–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 21–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 25–25 TOL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSAC 28–21 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSAC 32–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 35–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 39–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSAC 7–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSAC 11–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 14–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSAC 18–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSAC 21–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSAC 25–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSAC 28–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 32–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSAC 35–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSAC 4–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSAC 7–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSAC 11–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSAC 14–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSAC 18–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSAC 21–14 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSAC 25–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSAC 28–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSAC 32–4 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTOL +28TOL +14PKSAC +14SAC +28margin →