Passing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #38
- BALL defense
- #132
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.45
#132
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 2:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TOL 92.5%7.5% BALL
- Projected margin
- TOL by 22.1
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- TOL 41 to TOL 3
- Win probability
- TOL 92.5%
FinalTOL 39 · BALL 24model had -22.1, off by 7.1
Current team profiles
Toledo
Ball StateWhen Toledo has the ball
Rushing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #55
- BALL defense
- #133
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
0.25
#133
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #81
- BALL defense
- #114
Success rates
43%
#81
45%
#114
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#36
0.32
#136
EPA / play
1.44
#3
1.44
#135
Explosiveness
14%
#45
13%
#113
Havoc
When Ball State has the ball
Passing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #79
- BALL offense
- #92
EPA comparison
0.17
#79
0.13
#92
Pass EPA
Rushing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #34
- BALL offense
- #100
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.03
#100
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #10
- BALL offense
- #128
Success rates
34%
#10
36%
#128
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#43
0.05
#107
EPA / play
1.32
#109
1.38
#13
Explosiveness
14%
#97
18%
#125
Havoc
Current key players
ToledoQBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Coverage
- 80.5
- Targets allowed
- 23
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 121
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.7
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.7
- Coverage
- 82.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.5
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- -6
- Passer rating allowed
- 116.7
- Missed tackles
- 1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10
Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Ball StateQBKeldric Luster
662 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
67.4185/729
RBElijah Jackson
25 yds · 0 TD · 6.2 YPC
80.668/1044
DBGabe Aramboles
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.6
- Coverage
- 71.7
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 91.7
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.2220/2969
LBKaleb Stewart
23 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.9
- Coverage
- 60.9
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
72.9260/1796
DBQuentavius Scandrett
25 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 66.2
- Coverage
- 74.3
- Targets allowed
- 9
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 60
- Passer rating allowed
- 94.4
- Missed tackles
- 3
70.9387/2969
LBLayton Starks
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.6
- Coverage
- 66.6
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 66
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.2443/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Isaiah Thacker · WRout · 2026-10-10
Thacker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Derion Talbert · WRout · 2026-09-26
Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Cole Coonrod · TEout · 2026-10-10
Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jalen Bonds · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Bonds is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Mason Riggins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Riggins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will play against the Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
- Char'Rese Breveard · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Bowling Green on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TOLToledo
BALLBall State
vs
Offense
87.8
#28 of 138
QB
Quarterback
67.4
#112 of 138
81.3
#26 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.2
#35 of 138
75.2
#33 of 138
WR
Receivers
64.8
#130 of 138
68.5
#77 of 138
TE
Tight ends
58.7
#130 of 138
69.2
#59 of 138
OL
Offensive line
66.4
#86 of 138
Defense
74.4
#60 of 138
DL
Defensive line
68.0
#121 of 138
75.7
#53 of 138
LB
Linebackers
68.5
#116 of 138
74.6
#40 of 138
DB
Secondary
67.8
#118 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Toledo
opponent
Ball State
Hhome+17.8
BGSUBowling Green#144-5.4Aaway
Hhome+25.2
MASSMassachusetts#134+2.1Aaway
Aaway+7.7
OHIOOhio#107-10.2Aaway
Hhome-15.0
BUFBuffalo#149-0.2Hhome
Aaway+19.3
SACSacramento State#187+6.8Hhome