AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#73Away
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
33p
#136Home
Ball State
0-0 · AVR 22.6
20p
TOL 82%18% BALL
Spread
TOL -13.6
Total
53
Moneyline
TOL-464BALL+464
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TOL advantageevenBALL advantage →
TOL throw
TOL +25
TOL run
TOL +25
BALL throw
TOL coverage #27TOL pass rush #106
TOL +38
BALL run
TOL linebackers #35
TOL +46

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BALL runs
Johnny Thompson Jr.
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · BALL
MLB · TOL
49.3
79.0
TOL +30
when BALL throws
Jabari Smith Jr.
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · BALL
CB1 · TOL
47.0
79.6
TOL +33
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Jared Badie
RB · TOL
MLB · BALL
49.8
60.1
BALL +10
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Quentavius Scandrett
X · TOL
CB1 · BALL
52.1
55.4
BALL +3
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Maverick Gracio
LT · TOL
EDGE · BALL
57.7
47.5
TOL +10
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Derek Fields
TE · TOL
FS · BALL
52.4
33.1
TOL +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287
Ball State
LBJared Badie
60.1282/878
DBQuentavius Scandrett
55.4609/1427
DBWillizhuan Yates
53.6666/1427
QBKeldric Luster
53.0122/308
RBJohnny Thompson Jr.
49.3310/514
WRJabari Smith Jr.
47.0410/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Toledo
opponent
Ball State
home+10.3
Bowling Green#114
-10.8away
home+30.1
Massachusetts#138
+9.1away
home+12.3
Buffalo#116
-3.8home
away+1.6
Ohio#101
-14.5away
away-1.1
Sacramento State#111
-12.1home

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +13.695% interval: -37.5 to 10.480% interval: -30.9 to 3.8-31+4TOL wins 82%BALL wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 35–21 BALLBALL 18–60 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 21–56 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 25–53 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 28–49 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 32–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 35–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 39–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBALL 42–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBALL 46–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBALL 14–56 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 18–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 21–49 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 25–46 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 28–42 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBALL 32–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBALL 35–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBALL 39–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 42–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBALL 11–53 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 14–49 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 18–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 21–42 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 25–39 TOL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBALL 28–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBALL 32–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 35–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 39–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 7–49 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 11–46 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 14–42 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 18–39 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 21–35 TOL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBALL 25–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 28–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 32–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 35–21 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 4–46 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 7–42 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 11–39 TOL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBALL 14–35 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBALL 18–32 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBALL 21–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 25–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 28–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBALL 32–18 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBALL 0–42 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBALL 4–39 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBALL 7–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBALL 11–32 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 14–28 TOL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBALL 18–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBALL 21–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBALL 25–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBALL 28–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)BALL 0–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBALL 4–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBALL 7–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 11–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBALL 14–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBALL 18–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBALL 21–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBALL 25–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTOL +42TOL +28TOL +14PKBALL +14margin →