AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 8:00 PM
#73Away
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
16p
#65Home
Michigan State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
34p
TOL 12%88% MSU
Spread
MSU -17.6
Total
50
Moneyline
TOL+749MSU-749
Against the market
MSU +7.6line MSU -10.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TOL advantageevenMSU advantage →
TOL throw
MSU +9
TOL run
MSU front #98MSU linebackers #13
MSU +19
MSU throw
MSU QB #138TOL coverage #27
TOL +35
MSU run
MSU line #73MSU backs #18
MSU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MSU runs
Cam Edwards
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · MSU
MLB · TOL
83.7
79.0
MSU +5
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Charles Brantley
X · TOL
CB1 · MSU
52.1
85.6
MSU +33
when TOL runs
Dane Nauman
vs
Caleb Wheatland
RB · TOL
MLB · MSU
49.8
86.7
MSU +37
when MSU throws
KK Smith
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · MSU
CB1 · TOL
54.5
79.6
TOL +25
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Kenny Soares Jr.
LT · TOL
EDGE · MSU
57.7
68.5
MSU +11
over the middle
Jayden Savoury
vs
Andrew Fineske
TE · MSU
FS · TOL
44.5
69.7
TOL +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287
Michigan State
LBCaleb Wheatland
86.715/878
CBCharles Brantley
85.638/1427
RBCam Edwards
83.713/514
LBDion Crawford
79.757/878
SMichael Richard
77.0125/1427
CBTre Bell
72.8180/1427

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMSU +17.6MKT95% interval: -12 to 4880% interval: -3 to 38-3+38TOL wins 12%MSU wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MSU 35–14 TOLMSU 32–39 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 35–35 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 39–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 42–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 46–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 49–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMSU 53–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMSU 56–14 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 60–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMSU 28–35 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 32–32 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 35–28 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 39–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 42–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMSU 46–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMSU 49–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMSU 53–11 TOL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMSU 56–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 25–32 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 28–28 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 32–25 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 35–21 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 39–18 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 42–14 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 46–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 49–7 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 53–4 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 21–28 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 25–25 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 28–21 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 32–18 TOL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSU 35–14 TOL neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesMSU 39–11 TOL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMSU 42–7 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 46–4 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 49–0 TOL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMSU 18–25 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMSU 21–21 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 25–18 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 28–14 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 32–11 TOL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMSU 35–7 TOL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMSU 39–4 TOL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMSU 42–0 TOL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MSU 14–21 TOL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMSU 18–18 TOL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMSU 21–14 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 25–11 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 28–7 TOL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMSU 32–4 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 35–0 TOL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)MSU 11–18 TOL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMSU 14–14 TOL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMSU 18–11 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMSU 21–7 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 25–4 TOL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMSU 28–0 TOL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalTOL +7MSU +7MSU +21MSU +35MSU +49margin →