Passing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #38
- MSU defense
- #109
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.29
#109
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TOL 48.5%51.5% MSU
- Projected margin
- MSU by 0.6
- Projected total
- 51
- 80% outcome range
- TOL 20 to MSU 21
- Win probability
- MSU 51.5%
FinalTOL 20 · MSU 30model had +0.6, off by 9.4
Current team profiles
Toledo
Michigan StateWhen Toledo has the ball
Rushing
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #55
- MSU defense
- #88
EPA comparison
0.14
#55
0.08
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL offense
- #81
- MSU defense
- #95
Success rates
43%
#81
43%
#95
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#36
0.18
#114
EPA / play
1.44
#3
1.27
#90
Explosiveness
14%
#45
13%
#119
Havoc
When Michigan State has the ball
Passing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #79
- MSU offense
- #111
EPA comparison
0.17
#79
0.08
#111
Pass EPA
Rushing
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #34
- MSU offense
- #110
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
0.00
#110
Rush EPA
Drive success
TOL defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TOL defense
- #10
- MSU offense
- #69
Success rates
34%
#10
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#43
0.02
#117
EPA / play
1.32
#109
1.06
#133
Explosiveness
14%
#97
17%
#106
Havoc
Current key players
ToledoQBKhamoni Robinson
21 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
87.830/729
WRAdjatay Dabbs
25 rec · 367 yds · 4 TD
84.125/2069
RBAutavius Ison
175 yds · 1 TD · 4.5 YPC
82.554/1044
CBIsrael Petite
23 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Coverage
- 80.5
- Targets allowed
- 23
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 121
- Passer rating allowed
- 74.7
- Missed tackles
- 2
80.953/2969
LBJulian Fox
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.7
- Coverage
- 82.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 8
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.872/1796
SNicholas Thompson
15 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.5
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- -6
- Passer rating allowed
- 116.7
- Missed tackles
- 1
75.7169/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Kalvin Gilbert Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10
Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Trenton Jones · WRout · 2026-10-10
Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tucker Kelleher · TEout · 2026-10-10
Kelleher is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Michigan StateQBAlessio Milivojevic
851 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
68.2181/729
LBDion Crawford
23 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.4
- Coverage
- 68.0
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.132/1796
LBCaleb Wheatland
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 55.6
- Coverage
- 89.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
77.8122/1796
WRBraylon Collier
2 rec · 23 yds · 0 TD
76.4103/2069
RBCam Edwards
304 yds · 3 TD · 4.8 YPC
74.1191/1044
SDevin Vaught
33 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 91.2
- Coverage
- 58.1
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 59
- Passer rating allowed
- 124.2
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.1271/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Caleb Wheatland · LBQues. · 2026-10-11
Wheatland is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Edwards · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Edwards is dealing with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Cam Fancher · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Fancher exited the game with a knee injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TOLToledo
MSUMichigan State
vs
Offense
87.8
#28 of 138
QB
Quarterback
68.2
#109 of 138
81.3
#26 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.8
#99 of 138
75.2
#33 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.7
#65 of 138
68.5
#77 of 138
TE
Tight ends
70.8
#59 of 138
69.2
#59 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.5
#49 of 138
Defense
74.4
#60 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.3
#80 of 138
75.7
#53 of 138
LB
Linebackers
80.2
#19 of 138
74.6
#40 of 138
DB
Secondary
66.7
#129 of 138