AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#64Away
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
26p
#73Home
Toledo
0-0 · AVR 47.9
26p
SDSU 49%51% TOL
Spread
TOL -0.4
Total
52
Moneyline
SDSU+104TOL-104
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SDSU advantageevenTOL advantage →
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34TOL coverage #27
TOL +9
SDSU run
TOL linebackers #35
SDSU +21
TOL throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
SDSU +25
TOL run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Sam Smith Jr.
RB · SDSU
MLB · TOL
73.8
79.0
TOL +5
when TOL throws
Tashi Braceful
vs
Max Garrison
X · TOL
CB1 · SDSU
52.1
89.5
SDSU +37
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Hyajah Miller
X · SDSU
CB1 · TOL
51.4
79.6
TOL +28
off the edge· hunting DeHaan
Jonathan Harder
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · TOL
EDGE · SDSU
57.7
72.7
SDSU +15
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Nathaniel Chandler
LT · SDSU
EDGE · TOL
63.6
61.4
dead even
over the middle
Sam Lee
vs
Kaimana Tufaga
TE · TOL
FS · SDSU
52.4
68.2
SDSU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308
Toledo
CBHyajah Miller
79.695/1427
LBSam Smith Jr.
79.065/878
SDylan Hohler
78.6105/1427
LBLangston Long
70.2142/878
STyler Hackenbracht
69.7246/1427
TESam Lee
52.4113/287

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTOL +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18SDSU wins 49%TOL wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TOL 25–25 SDSUTOL 21–49 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 25–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTOL 28–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTOL 32–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 35–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTOL 39–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 42–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 46–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 49–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 18–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 21–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 25–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 28–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 32–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 35–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 39–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 42–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 46–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 14–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 18–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 21–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 25–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTOL 28–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTOL 32–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 35–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 39–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 42–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 11–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 14–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 18–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTOL 21–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 25–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTOL 28–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTOL 32–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTOL 35–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 39–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTOL 7–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 11–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 14–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTOL 18–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTOL 21–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTOL 25–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTOL 28–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 32–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTOL 35–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTOL 4–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 7–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTOL 11–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTOL 14–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 18–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTOL 21–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTOL 25–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 28–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTOL 32–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTOL 0–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTOL 4–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 7–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTOL 11–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTOL 14–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTOL 18–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTOL 21–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTOL 25–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTOL 28–0 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalSDSU +28SDSU +14PKTOL +14TOL +28margin →