AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sun Oct 18 · 2:30 AM
Oil Can
#87Away
Fresno State
0-0 · AVR 44.5
23p
#64Home
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
30p
FRES 33%67% SDSU
Spread
SDSU -6.4
Total
53
Moneyline
FRES+204SDSU-204
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FRES advantageevenSDSU advantage →
FRES throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
SDSU +39
FRES run
FRES +8
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
FRES +36
SDSU run
FRES linebackers #91
SDSU +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Simeon Harris
X · SDSU
CB1 · FRES
51.4
91.7
FRES +40
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Sione Noa
LT · SDSU
EDGE · FRES
63.6
78.7
FRES +15
when FRES throws
Josiah Freeman
vs
Max Garrison
X · FRES
CB1 · SDSU
52.5
89.5
SDSU +37
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Justin Johnson
RB · SDSU
MLB · FRES
73.8
61.1
SDSU +13
when FRES runs
Rayshon Luke
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · FRES
MLB · SDSU
64.5
61.6
dead even
off the edge· hunting Martin
Rolan Fullwood
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · FRES
EDGE · SDSU
52.6
72.7
SDSU +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Fresno State
DBSimeon Harris
91.77/1427
DBRJ Regan
85.441/1427
DBRyan Wilson
82.865/1427
RBRayshon Luke
64.577/514
LBJustin Johnson
61.1266/878
LBK'vion Thunderbird
58.5324/878

also out — B. Ramirez (RB)

San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Fresno State
opponent
San Diego State
away-6.8
Texas State#59
+2.2home
away-2.6
Washington State#85
+6.3home
away-0.5
Utah State#92
+8.4home
home+12.2
Oregon State#122
+11.1away
home+12.9
Colorado State#129
+11.8away
home-2.1
Boise State#60
-3.1away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +6.495% interval: -17.5 to 30.380% interval: -10.9 to 23.8-11+24FRES wins 33%SDSU wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 32–25 FRESSDSU 28–49 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 32–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 35–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 39–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 42–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 46–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 49–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 53–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 56–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–46 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 28–42 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 35–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 39–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSDSU 42–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 46–25 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 49–21 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 53–18 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 21–42 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 25–39 FRES neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–35 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 35–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 39–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 42–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSDSU 46–18 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 49–14 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 18–39 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 21–35 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–32 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–28 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSDSU 35–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 39–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 42–14 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 46–11 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–35 FRES neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 18–32 FRES neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSDSU 21–28 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 25–25 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 28–21 FRES neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSDSU 32–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSDSU 35–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 39–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 42–7 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 11–32 FRES neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 14–28 FRES neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSDSU 18–25 FRES neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 21–21 FRES neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 25–18 FRES neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 28–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 32–11 FRES neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 35–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 39–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 7–28 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 11–25 FRES neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 14–21 FRES neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 18–18 FRES neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 21–14 FRES neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSDSU 25–11 FRES neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–7 FRES neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 32–4 FRES neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 35–0 FRES neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalFRES +21FRES +7SDSU +7SDSU +21SDSU +35margin →