CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET
Oil Can
Forecast win probability
FRES 44.5%55.5% SDSU
Projected margin
SDSU by 2.0
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
FRES 17 to SDSU 21
Win probability
SDSU 55.5%

Current team profiles

Fresno State
San Diego State

When Fresno State has the ball

Passing

FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES offense
#31
SDSU defense
#113
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.32
#113
Pass EPA

Rushing

SDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES offense
#113
SDSU defense
#56
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

FRES offense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES offense
#108
SDSU defense
#130
Success rates
39%
#108
48%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#72
0.15
#104
EPA / play
1.35
#17
1.08
#15
Explosiveness
13%
#31
12%
#128
Havoc

When San Diego State has the ball

Passing

FRES defense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES defense
#49
SDSU offense
#135
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
-0.14
#135
Pass EPA

Rushing

FRES defense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES defense
#56
SDSU offense
#126
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

FRES defense
Higher-ranked profile
FRES defense
#83
SDSU offense
#135
Success rates
42%
#83
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#51
-0.12
#136
EPA / play
1.17
#43
1.12
#122
Explosiveness
15%
#93
16%
#98
Havoc

Current key players

Fresno State
QBJayden Mandal
1034 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
69.6157/729
WRJaylen Garrison
1 rec · 17 yds · 0 TD
87.913/2069
DBSimeon Harris
24 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.2
Coverage
89.7
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
94
Passer rating allowed
28.8
Missed tackles
1
87.715/2969
RBRayshon Luke
286 yds · 1 TD · 6.8 YPC
83.447/1044
LBJustin Johnson
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.7
Coverage
78.2
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.659/1796
WRJosiah Freeman
25 rec · 322 yds · 2 TD
76.992/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Brandon Ramirez · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Ramirez is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Rayshon Luke · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Luke is dealing with a concussion injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Harold Duvall · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Duvall is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the State Aztecs on Saturday, October 17th.

San Diego State
QBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
82
Passer rating allowed
32.4
Missed tackles
2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.8
Coverage
61.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
9
Forced fumbles
0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.6
Run blocking
75.7
Penalties
0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
  • Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob

  • Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

FRES
SDSU
vs
Offense
69.6
#102 of 138
QB
74.8
#84 of 138
77.3
#52 of 138
RB
72.1
#105 of 138
79.1
#13 of 138
WR
71.5
#68 of 138
64.3
#95 of 138
TE
71.9
#51 of 138
59.1
#136 of 138
OL
70.8
#48 of 138
Defense
72.0
#87 of 138
DL
72.2
#84 of 138
72.3
#85 of 138
LB
69.0
#113 of 138
75.5
#28 of 138
DB
70.4
#90 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Fresno State
opponent
San Diego State
H+9.1
ORST#44
-52.0A
A+20.0
WSU#101
+7.4H
H+12.3
CSU#118
+6.3A
A+2.9
USU#97
+7.6H
H-7.0
BOIS#29
-10.2A
A+0.9
TXST#55
+2.0H