CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SDSU 22.4%77.6% UCLA
Projected margin
UCLA by 11.9
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
SDSU 7 to UCLA 31
Win probability
UCLA 77.6%
FinalSDSU 10 · UCLA 28model had +11.9, off by 6.1

Current team profiles

San Diego State
UCLA

When San Diego State has the ball

Passing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#135
UCLA defense
#5
EPA comparison
-0.14
#135
-0.12
#5
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#126
UCLA defense
#1
EPA comparison
-0.08
#126
-0.24
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU offense
#135
UCLA defense
#5
Success rates
33%
#135
32%
#5
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#136
-0.20
#1
EPA / play
1.12
#122
1.23
#74
Explosiveness
16%
#98
21%
#11
Havoc

When UCLA has the ball

Passing

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#113
UCLA offense
#98
EPA comparison
0.32
#113
0.12
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#56
UCLA offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
SDSU defense
#130
UCLA offense
#44
Success rates
48%
#130
46%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#104
0.20
#46
EPA / play
1.08
#15
1.23
#72
Explosiveness
12%
#128
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

San Diego State
QBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.5
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
82
Passer rating allowed
32.4
Missed tackles
2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.8
Coverage
61.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
26
Missed tackles
9
Forced fumbles
0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
73.6
Run blocking
75.7
Penalties
0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
  • Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob

  • Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.

UCLA
QBNico Iamaleava
820 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
64.9216/729
LBSammy Omosigho
38 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
3
90.78/1796
LBTrent Hendrick
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
86.825/1796
RBWayne Knight
445 yds · 9 TD · 9.1 YPC
86.227/1044
DBTa'Shawn James
24 tkl · 2 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.0
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
70
Passer rating allowed
41.7
Missed tackles
5
84.328/2969
DBDerrick Barksdale
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
120.1
Missed tackles
3
77.7102/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Mikey Matthews · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Matthews is dealing with a lower-leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Josh Phifer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Phifer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Sam Yoon · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Yoon is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SDSU
UCLA
vs
Offense
74.8
#84 of 138
QB
64.9
#120 of 138
72.1
#105 of 138
RB
86.0
#7 of 138
71.5
#68 of 138
WR
74.0
#43 of 138
71.9
#51 of 138
TE
61.1
#110 of 138
70.8
#48 of 138
OL
69.3
#57 of 138
Defense
72.2
#84 of 138
DL
80.0
#16 of 138
69.0
#113 of 138
LB
84.2
#8 of 138
70.4
#90 of 138
DB
75.2
#31 of 138
Common opponents