AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:15 PM
#64Away
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
23p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
29p
SDSU 35%65% UCLA
Spread
UCLA -5.7
Total
52
Moneyline
SDSU+186UCLA-186
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SDSU advantageevenUCLA advantage →
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
UCLA +24
SDSU run
even
UCLA throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
even
UCLA run
UCLA +27

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Max Garrison
X · UCLA
CB1 · SDSU
87.0
89.5
dead even
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · SDSU
MLB · UCLA
73.8
84.8
UCLA +11
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
Sahir West
LT · SDSU
EDGE · UCLA
63.6
93.8
UCLA +30
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Tano Letuli
RB · UCLA
MLB · SDSU
82.7
61.6
UCLA +21
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · UCLA
EDGE · SDSU
69.2
72.7
SDSU +3
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · SDSU
CB1 · UCLA
51.4
89.4
UCLA +38

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCLA +5.795% interval: -18.3 to 29.680% interval: -11.7 to 23-12+23SDSU wins 35%UCLA wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 28–21 SDSUUCLA 25–46 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 53–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 49–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 46–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 42–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–0 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 4–25 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–21 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 11–18 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 14–14 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 18–11 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 21–7 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 25–4 SDSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–0 SDSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalSDSU +21SDSU +7UCLA +7UCLA +21UCLA +35margin →