AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sun Oct 4 · 2:30 AM
#59Away
Texas State
0-0 · AVR 51.4
27p
#64Home
San Diego State
0-0 · AVR 50.2
29p
TXST 44%56% SDSU
Spread
SDSU -2.2
Total
57
Moneyline
TXST+128SDSU-128
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TXST advantageevenSDSU advantage →
TXST throw
SDSU coverage #24SDSU pass rush #96
TXST +27
TXST run
TXST line #18TXST backs #97
TXST +24
SDSU throw
SDSU protection #34
SDSU +9
SDSU run
SDSU +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TXST throws
Beau Sparks
vs
Max Garrison
X · TXST
CB1 · SDSU
80.3
89.5
SDSU +9
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Jaylen Early
vs
Kai Wallin
LT · TXST
EDGE · SDSU
91.1
72.7
TXST +18
off the edge· hunting Denegal
Kalan Ellis
vs
DonTerry Russell
LT · SDSU
EDGE · TXST
63.6
83.6
TXST +20
when SDSU runs
Lucky Sutton
vs
Terrence Cooks II
RB · SDSU
MLB · TXST
73.8
60.0
SDSU +14
over the middle
Blake Smith
vs
Kaimana Tufaga
TE · TXST
FS · SDSU
64.1
68.2
SDSU +4
when SDSU throws
Bert Emanuel Jr.
vs
Ryan Nolan
X · SDSU
CB1 · TXST
51.4
65.1
TXST +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas State
QBBrad Jackson
84.810/308
WRBeau Sparks
80.320/777
WRChris Dawn Jr.
71.346/777
DBRyan Nolan
65.1354/1427
TEBlake Smith
64.125/287
LBTerrence Cooks II
60.0288/878
San Diego State
SMax Garrison
89.513/1427
SJalen Thomeson
76.7129/1427
SDalesean Staley
76.2136/1427
RBLucky Sutton
73.839/514
LBTano Letuli
61.6258/878
QBJayden Denegal
56.486/308

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas State
opponent
San Diego State
home+17.1
Colorado State#129
+11.8away
home+6.8
Fresno State#87
+6.4home
away+11.4
Oregon State#122
+11.1away
away-2.8
Boise State#60
-3.1away
home+6.6
Washington State#85
+6.3home
home+8.7
Utah State#92
+8.4home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSDSU +2.295% interval: -21.7 to 26.180% interval: -15.2 to 19.6-15+20TXST wins 44%SDSU wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SDSU 28–28 TXSTSDSU 25–53 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 28–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 32–46 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 35–42 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 39–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSDSU 42–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 46–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSDSU 49–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 53–25 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSDSU 21–49 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 25–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–42 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 32–39 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 35–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 39–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 42–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 46–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 49–21 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 18–46 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 21–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 25–39 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 28–35 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 32–32 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSDSU 35–28 TXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSDSU 39–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 42–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSDSU 46–18 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 14–42 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 18–39 TXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSDSU 21–35 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 25–32 TXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSDSU 28–28 TXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSDSU 32–25 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSDSU 35–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSDSU 39–18 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 42–14 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 11–39 TXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSDSU 14–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 18–32 TXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSDSU 21–28 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 25–25 TXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSDSU 28–21 TXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 35–14 TXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSDSU 39–11 TXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSDSU 7–35 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 11–32 TXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSDSU 14–28 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 18–25 TXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSDSU 21–21 TXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSDSU 25–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSDSU 28–14 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 32–11 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 35–7 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 4–32 TXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSDSU 7–28 TXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSDSU 11–25 TXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSDSU 14–21 TXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSDSU 18–18 TXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSDSU 21–14 TXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSDSU 25–11 TXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSDSU 28–7 TXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSDSU 32–4 TXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTXST +28TXST +14PKSDSU +14SDSU +28margin →