Passing
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #14
- SDSU defense
- #113
EPA comparison
0.48
#14
0.32
#113
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TXST 62.5%37.5% SDSU
- Projected margin
- TXST by 3.9
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- TXST 23 to SDSU 14
- Win probability
- TXST 62.5%
FinalTXST 29 · SDSU 31model had -3.9, off by 5.9
Current team profiles
Texas State
San Diego StateWhen Texas State has the ball
Rushing
SDSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #63
- SDSU defense
- #56
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.02
#56
Rush EPA
Drive success
TXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST offense
- #23
- SDSU defense
- #130
Success rates
49%
#23
48%
#130
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#30
0.15
#104
EPA / play
1.27
#43
1.08
#15
Explosiveness
14%
#49
12%
#128
Havoc
When San Diego State has the ball
Passing
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #113
- SDSU offense
- #135
EPA comparison
0.32
#113
-0.14
#135
Pass EPA
Rushing
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #34
- SDSU offense
- #126
EPA comparison
-0.04
#34
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA
Drive success
TXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- TXST defense
- #112
- SDSU offense
- #135
Success rates
45%
#112
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.11
#90
-0.12
#136
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.12
#122
Explosiveness
15%
#90
16%
#98
Havoc
Current key players
Texas StateQBBrad Jackson
1226 yds · 13 TD · 5 INT
82.459/729
WRLa'Keyleon Graves
1 rec · 49 yds · 1 TD
83.928/2069
LBAyden Jones
31 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.2
- Coverage
- 74.7
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 14
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.181/1796
RBJuntavious Harris
80 yds · 1 TD · 8.9 YPC
78.5101/1044
DBRyan Nolan
29 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.8
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 131
- Passer rating allowed
- 102.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
78.486/2969
WRDameon Crowe
4 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
74.8131/2069
Availability reports · 3
- Cole Snodgrass · TEout · 2026-10-01
Snodgrass is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to suit up against the San Diego State on Saturday.
- Kylen Evans · WRQues. · 2026-09-27
vans is nursing with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will face San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
- Jordan Sample · LBQues. · 2026-09-27
Sample is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against San Diego State on Saturday, October 3th.
San Diego StateQBStone Saunders
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
74.8116/729
CBMike Lindsay
13 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 82.5
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Targets allowed
- 18
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 82
- Passer rating allowed
- 32.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
75.4182/2969
LBSione Hala
45 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 80.8
- Coverage
- 61.4
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 26
- Missed tackles
- 9
- Forced fumbles
- 0
74.1211/1796
RBJavion Kinnard
312 yds · 1 TD · 5.6 YPC
72.7236/1044
WRDaishaun Davis
3 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
72.3188/2069
TEJack Lua
1 rec · 10 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 73.6
- Run blocking
- 75.7
- Penalties
- 0
71.969/1017
Availability reports · 8
- Nathan Acevedo · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Acevedo is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lucky Sutton · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Sutton is dealing with an ankle injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jackson Ford · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Ford is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Donovan Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Brown is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Ryan Wolfer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Wolfer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Aldrich Doe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Aldrich has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, Octob
- Jack Ellis · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Ellis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Parker Guiltinan · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Guiltinan is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Bulldogs on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TXSTTexas State
SDSUSan Diego State
vs
Offense
82.4
#50 of 138
QB
Quarterback
74.8
#84 of 138
78.2
#46 of 138
RB
Running backs
72.1
#105 of 138
77.4
#21 of 138
WR
Receivers
71.5
#68 of 138
64.5
#94 of 138
TE
Tight ends
71.9
#51 of 138
69.2
#61 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.8
#48 of 138
Defense
81.3
#12 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.2
#84 of 138
75.1
#58 of 138
LB
Linebackers
69.0
#113 of 138
71.2
#81 of 138
DB
Secondary
70.4
#90 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Texas State
opponent
San Diego State
Aaway+0.2
ORSTOregon State#44-52.0Aaway
Hhome+4.4
WSUWashington State#101+7.4Hhome
Aaway-13.1
BOISBoise State#29-10.2Aaway
Hhome-0.9
FRESFresno State#69+2.0Hhome
Hhome+4.7
USUUtah State#97+7.6Hhome
Hhome+8.7
CSUColorado State#118+6.3Aaway