AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 11:00 PM
#122Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
21p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
37p
ORST 12%88% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -16.8
Total
58
Moneyline
ORST+716BOIS-716
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORST advantageevenBOIS advantage →
ORST throw
ORST protection #57BOIS coverage #43
BOIS +22
ORST run
BOIS linebackers #65
ORST +9
BOIS throw
BOIS +15
BOIS run
BOIS +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · BOIS
MLB · ORST
79.1
70.3
BOIS +9
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · BOIS
CB1 · ORST
59.0
72.4
ORST +13
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · ORST
MLB · BOIS
53.9
72.5
BOIS +19
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · BOIS
EDGE · ORST
59.5
65.5
ORST +6
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · ORST
CB1 · BOIS
42.5
76.9
BOIS +34
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
David Latu
LT · ORST
EDGE · BOIS
48.3
63.8
BOIS +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon State
opponent
Boise State
away-12.2
Fresno State#87
+2.1away
away-1.8
Colorado State#129
+12.4away
home-11.1
San Diego State#64
+3.1home
home-11.4
Texas State#59
+2.8home
home-5.2
Utah State#92
+9.0home
home-7.3
Washington State#85
+1.9away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +16.895% interval: -7.2 to 40.780% interval: -0.6 to 34.1-1+34ORST wins 12%BOIS wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 35–21 ORSTBOIS 32–46 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBOIS 56–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBOIS 60–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 28–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 32–39 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBOIS 53–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 56–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 25–39 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 28–35 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 49–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 53–11 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 21–35 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBOIS 25–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 46–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 49–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 18–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 21–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 ORST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 42–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 46–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 14–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 18–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 21–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 39–4 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 42–0 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 11–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 14–21 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 18–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 21–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 25–11 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 28–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 32–4 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–0 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalORST +14PKBOIS +14BOIS +28BOIS +42margin →