CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ORST 15.3%84.7% BOIS
Projected margin
BOIS by 16.0
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
ORST 3 to BOIS 35
Win probability
BOIS 84.7%

Current team profiles

Oregon State
Boise State

When Oregon State has the ball

Passing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
BOIS defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.50
#11
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#81
BOIS defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.08
#81
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
BOIS defense
#40
Success rates
51%
#11
37%
#40
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#10
0.06
#64
EPA / play
1.26
#45
1.62
#138
Explosiveness
11%
#21
18%
#31
Havoc

When Boise State has the ball

Passing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#49
BOIS offense
#18
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
0.44
#18
Pass EPA

Rushing

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#52
BOIS offense
#25
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.22
#25
Rush EPA

Drive success

BOIS offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#71
BOIS offense
#26
Success rates
40%
#71
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#55
0.32
#10
EPA / play
1.08
#18
1.22
#75
Explosiveness
17%
#45
9%
#5
Havoc

Current key players

Oregon State
QBBraden Atkinson
1827 yds · 16 TD · 2 INT
84.947/729
WRJesse Legree
28 rec · 741 yds · 9 TD
89.68/2069
TELandon Cook
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
59.9
Penalties
0
80.723/1017
LBTakari Hickle
27 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
60.5
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
116
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
77.2135/1796
LBKord Shaw
20 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.9
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
6
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.3174/1796
RBAJ Newberry
271 yds · 2 TD · 6.0 YPC
73.9195/1044
Boise State
QBMaddux Madsen
1058 yds · 11 TD · 0 INT
90.616/729
TEMatt Wagner
17 rec · 196 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.9
Run blocking
75.5
Penalties
0
88.17/1017
RBSire Gaines
234 yds · 2 TD · 5.2 YPC
79.295/1044
LBMax Stege
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
18
Pass-rush snaps
132
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.1156/1796
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
11 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.8
Coverage
63.1
Pressures
13
Pass-rush snaps
115
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.1181/1796
WRRasean Jones
23 rec · 359 yds · 1 TD
75.0125/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Rasean Jones · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jones is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cam Bates · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bates is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ORST
BOIS
vs
Offense
84.9
#41 of 138
QB
90.6
#18 of 138
70.9
#113 of 138
RB
79.0
#39 of 138
72.0
#60 of 138
WR
71.5
#67 of 138
80.7
#23 of 138
TE
88.1
#7 of 138
72.6
#30 of 138
OL
70.2
#53 of 138
Defense
65.1
#136 of 138
DL
68.0
#122 of 138
75.6
#56 of 138
LB
74.8
#62 of 138
66.9
#126 of 138
DB
69.3
#107 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oregon State
opponent
Boise State
H+52.0
SDSU#104
+10.2H
H+1.8
USU#97
+19.0H
A+30.0
CSU#118
+13.8A
A-9.1
FRES#69
+7.0A
H-0.2
TXST#55
+13.1H
H+1.6
WSU#101
+9.6A