AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 10:00 PM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
28p
#60Home
Boise State
0-0 · AVR 51.0
31p
MEM 40%60% BOIS
Spread
BOIS -3.7
Total
59
Moneyline
MEM+152BOIS-152
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenBOIS advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
BOIS +11
MEM run
BOIS linebackers #65
MEM +17
BOIS throw
MEM +27
BOIS run
BOIS +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BOIS runs
Dylan Riley
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · BOIS
MLB · MEM
79.1
71.4
BOIS +8
when BOIS throws
Ben Ford
vs
Ian Foster
X · BOIS
CB1 · MEM
59.0
90.2
MEM +31
off the edge· hunting Madsen
Roger Carreon
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · BOIS
EDGE · MEM
59.5
86.2
MEM +27
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
David Latu
LT · MEM
EDGE · BOIS
79.2
63.8
MEM +15
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Jaden Mickey
X · MEM
CB1 · BOIS
60.4
76.9
BOIS +17
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
Jayden Virgin-Morgan
RB · MEM
MLB · BOIS
55.7
72.5
BOIS +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
Boise State
RBDylan Riley
79.127/514
DBJaden Mickey
76.9127/1427
LBJayden Virgin-Morgan
72.5120/878
DBSherrod Smith
71.1210/1427
DBJeRico Washington Jr.
71.0211/1427
LBBoen Phelps
64.3222/878

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBOIS +3.795% interval: -20.2 to 27.680% interval: -13.7 to 21.1-14+21MEM wins 40%BOIS wins 60%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BOIS 32–25 MEMBOIS 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 49–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 53–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 56–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBOIS 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBOIS 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBOIS 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBOIS 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBOIS 46–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 49–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 53–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBOIS 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 42–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 46–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 49–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBOIS 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBOIS 42–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 46–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBOIS 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBOIS 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBOIS 35–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 39–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBOIS 42–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBOIS 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBOIS 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBOIS 32–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBOIS 35–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBOIS 39–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBOIS 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBOIS 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBOIS 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBOIS 28–7 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBOIS 32–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBOIS 35–0 MEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +21MEM +7BOIS +7BOIS +21BOIS +35margin →